Virus Case Level Is ‘Disconcerting’: Johns Hopkins’ Pekosz

published on July 17, 2020

Andrew what's the sweat level of pros i get the media play i get the energy i just saw from the esteemed politician of the united kingdom what's the the sweat level the nervousness among grizzled pros like yourself

Well you know being prepared for this pandemic having seen the first large number of cases that came to the country we should have been better prepared to deal with

The eventual surges and small outbreaks that are occurring now it's incredibly disconcerting to see the level of cases that are coming up in places and more importantly the lack of real

Responses to get those case numbers down this is not the way you deal with a pandemic and we've been prepared not only from our own experiences but from the experiences of other countries

We know how to intervene here to get these case numbers down there seems to just be a lack of either political will or personal will to implement those uh those tools okay i'll go with a

Personal will and we've seen some good articles this week showing percentage of mask wearing in societies and all that what are we going to see in the next week or two i was ripped up on twitter dr peckhaus

Looking at the depth dynamics the first and second derivative of the logged path of deaths help me here with the death dynamics lagging the case dynamics right now yeah so we know because of the course of

The disease we'll see case numbers increase first we'll see hospitalizations lag that by anywhere between seven to ten days and then we'll see deaths lag that by

Another seven days or so what's interesting about now is the initial cases are in a younger population so those surges are really coming up in

Terms of those what we call healthier individuals who may not be suffering as much death but what we're going to see is now the transmission of virus from those individuals to more susceptible

Individuals and that's going to mean that the hospitalization and the death rates are going to increase on an even further delay so we are expecting to see these surges in severe cases lag even

Further than we have in in the first wave in this in in the country and by the time we see that surge it's going to be almost too late to intervene because of that delay in in

Terms of monitoring cases yeah that would certainly be a very serious situation and but dr peckos in terms of the severity of cases is it really true that cases are less severe for young

People because you see a lot of anecdotal evidence particularly on social media of people talking about uh really frightening symptoms that recur for weeks if not months on end yeah and this is the important thing to

Understand about things like when people use things like case fatality rates or hospitalization rates it may be that if you're younger the percentage of individuals that

Suffer those severe cases is lower across the population but we have to remember that virtually the entire us population is susceptible to diseases so even to this to this disease so even

A small percentage of severe cases amplified by the entire population of the us turns into a large number of cases and that's the important part that people have to remember it's not just

About well most young individuals won't have suffer severe cases there's enough of these young individuals so that the number of severe cases is really going to be large

And on top of that they are efficient transmitters of the disease so you'll see the severe disease in other populations that we know suffer from severe disease so this is not a benign disease this is

Not a common cold like virus then the severity of disease is covered with the large numbers of susceptible people is going to translate into a large number of severe cases that we're going to see

Right and on the transmission of course the who is still looking into whether um there's airborne transmission of covered 19 but what about the immune response what more do we know about um

Whether people can build up sufficient immunity to this as we wait for a vaccine yeah so with the vaccine trials we've had some good results still preliminary results still results

Off small population sizes but it seems like many of the vaccines that have been fast-tracked are generating the immune response that we want to see that we assume will protect us from infection

We still have a lot of safety work to do with these vaccines and that's going to come in play when we get the larger trials coming in place now into the early fall in terms of the immune responses to infection

It's kind of a mixed bag so in the same way that this virus causes a wide spectrum of disease ranging from no symptoms to hospitalization and death we're seeing that the virus also induces a wide

Spectrum of immune responses from rather modest ones that fade relatively quickly to rather strong ones that can last for at least a few months because that's as much of the data that we have so it's a

Again a big heterogeneous spectrum in terms of the immune responses that in that are induced by infection the vaccines seem a little bit more tighter in terms

Of their immune response so that's a good sign

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