Trading Markets During a Global Pandemic · Nishant Porbanerwalla

by birtanpublished on August 10, 2020

Markets speculation and risk this is the chaplet traders podcast hosted by Erin Fifield traders earn five field here welcome to one ninety this is an episode to cover the extreme volatility in markets following the recent outbreak of coronavirus joining me is Nishant

Porbandar wallah returning for a second time on chat with traders and here to discuss how he's been navigating through the turmoil nish is a proprietary equities trader at Kirsch in a trading group with well over a decade of

Experience behind him and just a few things I'd like to point out before we get started both nish and I are sensitive to the fact that there are a lot of people who have been adversely impacted by this

Outbreak and the market downturn Nicias here purely to share his insights and wisdom not to gloat about large gains also you'll hear nish speak about a scenario for how he thinks the market could play out over the coming weeks and

Months it's important to remember though he's an intraday trader who's not married to any one idea he will quickly abandon an opinion when necessary so as per usual nothing you hear in this episode or any episode is to be treated

As financial advice you are entirely responsible for your own trading decisions and after this episode it would be well worth your while to go back and listen to 170 that's the first time nish was on chat with traders but

Right now here's our latest conversation recorded immediately after the u.s. closed 18th the March 2020 thanks for listening pretty much the focus of just catching up with you now is just to talk about what's going on currently cuz it's

Uh it's quite unique so one of the things I was going to ask you about this first of all and we'll get recording now and when the virus first began spreading through China back in January did you have any foresight to imagine the

Knock-on effect that's happening right now no I think like like every other person in the United States no one took this so seriously you know we always thought like yeah things happen in China but there won't happen out here or this

One spread like this plusses 2020 I mean really I'm either died of a virus just like the same normal you know naive thought that I think every other person had out here I think we destroyed us at the same time you were just like oh

Great at least something has come up will be somewh already in the market because of that and that's it and no we were just trading like china names and things like that at that time and then you know I think came February and

Suddenly your things started being focused on on United States a little bit a few cases you know a few pieces there a sudden panic in the stock market so inside falling like 250 points and said I'll be like oh wow oh cool there's

Something happening out here but it imported no more reaction you know people just you know this and then one thing we have to understand in this market is that people have been caught with their pants down you know when I

Mean I say that I mean like everyone was super bullish many of these people have not seen what 2008 felt like so they never like you know they only seen the bull market and then passive investing you know people just said you know what

I don't know what to buy Lettuce buy spy laces bike use so like you know all your 401ks you know you just just buying you know passive investing and and you know you didn't have to bother about it because there was no risk management

Required because the market was just going up every day every day every day no one bothered you know your portfolio went from 10% to 50% 100% up and no one bothered and now people keep questioning me like hey man at portfolios down 30 35

Percent what should i do I said did you think about it I rose up 35 percent know right so either you don't do nothing right now or you should have done something then you know that's what I tell people but

Again you know obviously I didn't I don't think I saw had the foresight to see something in United States yeah it's very strange because even when was beginning to spread through China the market in the US and even Australia

Here just was continuing to push on into all-time highs just day after day so I think the majority of people thought that it was gonna be much better contained and as you said it's obviously caught a lot of people as their parents

Down and and I think that's partially the reason you know everyone was super bullish up until a few weeks ago yeah and that's what is different in 2008 right 2008 we kind of saw things progress over beautifully three four

Five months you know things went from you know bad to worse to you know world is coming to an end in this case that the time period is so much shorter right I mean won't be like nearly at all-time highs and like I think what January

February you know pretty much like I think I think I just saw like 20 trading days ago we were spy was at all-time highs 20 trading days ago so in – much time we have sold so much trillion dollars worth of stock and people I mean

I would say more people are just covering their Long's like this getting out right now I say that but you know we didn't take any risk no people at the wicks is going crazy because people are hedging their long beds instead of

Selling stock you know it like you know crazy prices I think today I felt today is what the today's Wednesday I think 17th or so was the first time I think I saw some buying come in little bit at the end but there was a lot of panic and

Then some stocks have just done so badly so badly like they're like down I don't know 2008 levels you know REITs anything that's that has mortgage in them right now people don't think that that debt is the biggest problem and you know I feel

Like there were like stocks like hyd I be you know for us it brother bonds like TLT ease and you know the DB T's and all the bonds and everything is just melting down PFF the preferred etf like that's like getting killed I mean it got killed

Back in 2008 all but that made sense because you know it was the debt crisis but this is turning into a debt crisis just watch it because you know the way America works and I was telling my friend that you know we need

To change the mentality of this country of our community is that we gotta start saving money for a rainy day you know it's like 75% of America lives paycheck to paycheck now they live paycheck to paycheck but they can always save some

Part of the paycheck I'm sure there's a certain amount of people they can surely you know do that and now when hits the fan like this you know everything just goes in and you know disarray you know it's like it becomes into a

World-leading situation becomes like you know the Walking Dead you know which it won't happen and never go that bad but the fear is going to be that bad and people will just like you know sell everything and stand in cash you know

That's what happened in 2008 also there will be good stuff to buy eventually there will be but I still don't think we are at the bottom right now that's my personal view you know I'm a day trader listen I'm no I'm no like you know

Mutual fund manager or something that I really know when the bottom is but I just personally I feel like there's one big move left maybe I think once we finish all there is I think the bottom will be about 50% down from the top for

You what's signaled a clear regime shift because as we've seen over the past couple years there's been a few corner nasty sell offs but they've been reasonably short-lived this is obviously gone much further and and much faster

Was there a point in the past let's say 20 dies which signaled a clear regime shift to you I think for me the first halt in the market you know I mean I've traded 16 years in this market I've traded the 2008 I've traded to flash

Crashes I've created through a lot of stuff you know but I've seen futures you know limit down that has that's not the big deal but I've never seen the market halt right and I couldn't believe it when the

Market halted for the first time and I was like you know what this is different I mean this is a lot of people have to you know unwind their positions out here because you know if this if the worst case scenario

Happens right people are gonna be stuck big time with this that's millions of billions and trillions of passive money that is stuck you know so everyone's gonna just unload and I was like you know what I think my biggest mistake

Which I did I mean you know was to buy Boeing I think I I thought Boeing is untouchable you know that's what I thought and I kept buying Boeing and kept buying Boeing and I'm like nah I'm like you know maybe I should not have

Bought it I mean forget not about already getting out of my blowing position because I'm like you know what I mean if you think about Boeing right is the way I thought about I'm like Boeing is pretty much the old like

Airbus and Boeing are the only people in this world that make planes right end of the day the world is going to become a bigger place it's gonna be more people in this world is gonna be more travel end of the day people have to buy more

Planes it's just normal you know this was gonna happen eventually but that's not how the stock is being treated right now you know and I still have that view but the same time I'm just like you know what this is not the

Time you know maybe there'll be a better prize a better time and you know I don't to be early in this market you know because I mean I think I think in this market now cash is king right I mean people like Microsoft people like Apple

Who have like 150 200 billion dollars sitting with them they become like you know the the gods of the market right now listen listen you know because you know worst case we can get through this the people who have over leveraged like

You know and everyone over leverage in this market right I mean because you're in a bull market everywhere everything is great you know you know buybacks dividend increase you know let's let's use less let's borrow

Money for cheap and you know Bill out of the hotel like marry it and all those guys you know this is he just over leveraged themselves you know and that's the problem with you know with America as a whole is that we we over leverage

All all our credit cards and this and that's when when hits the fan you always go to an extreme downtown you know and this is what happened you know really quick but but you know again we're still in the state of fear right

Now so you know it's still early I don't know when this is all going to unwind you know a big part of performing well in these conditions I'm sure comes down to preparedness what are you doing to prepare prior to the

Open each day you know one thing to do very in this in this environment is to be flexible you know I think that's very important it's like don't come with pre notions you know pre pre notions that you're gonna buy the market because

We're down two and a half thousand points it doesn't mean anything now you just have to be flexible see you know once you see what you see and if you like it and go for it do not have these preconceived notions that you know damn

Dude you know apples at two forty two thirty let's go buy it you never know what's gonna happen you know and you just have to be flexible and I think you know I think experience in this market is everything you know I feel like I

Mean in this year I'm making I'm doing well because I've seen a part of 2008 I've seen a big part of 2008 have seen flash crashes I've seen everything the real there's easy money and there's tough money right the easy money is

Arbitrage stuff you know when things halted for example there's all rhythms that trade the open right obviously but when things halted those algorithms were not working right so when something hauls and the whole market is halted all

The algorithms are shut off so what a stock is going to open at versus what it closed that is a big difference and so I start looking at those things I'm like you know what just before the market this before the

Halt happened UNH for example closed at 170 after the halt its opening at 155 I'm like you know what spy is not opening down that much as as you know the way UNH is doing it this because this there was no liquidity in the

Market at at those halts because of all wisdoms being shut off because all rhythms were not programmed for horse they were they were programmed for on open on clothes program for throughout the

Day when a stock opens after you know whatever half an hour or you know after open they don't know what to do so there's no of things like this which combat experience that you start watching you

Know you like you know what this is what I saw this is what I like and and there's so much craziness in the market by this because of that is people you know selling things really quickly really far just panic selling you can

Buy you know you can buy reversals you could go momentum a lot of these stocks have become short sell restricted you know if someone does understand that basically if a stock goes down more than ten percent and for two days it becomes

Short sell restricted which means that you can only buy if there's an uptick so you can only short if there's an uptick right so all these scenarios are coming in and like you know spy itself has become short sell restricted that

Creates a lot of problem because you know if you want a short Spy it has to have an uptick before you can short it so there's a lot of stuff that's happening in the market you know it's just I think this is where experience

Comes in hand you know it's because it's once in a life I said in 2008 it's a once in lifetime pod sorry but you know it's come back with him so I don't want to say that it's so unfortunate in our lives also

That you know we always make money when things go bad when the whole world is like you know crying about stuff and gonna be like just I don't never tell my PNL to anyone you know because I'm like you know it's just feasel unethical

Sometimes to do it but but yeah this is extraordinary times you know and you just have to stand up and and trade and you know put risk on because there's some trades where you just have to put the risk on you know you say listen what

If you're right you're gonna make three four five points if you're wrong you just have to learn to you know manage your risk I think risk management in this in this market is probably the biggest thing you know you just you

Can't be stubborn you can't you can't say like this this is not possible you know Boeing cannot be going to $90 Boeing cannot fall 150 points in a week it did it's just it you know and you just have to agree to it and say listen

What care get out use a risk get him a game when you think it's the right time but get out right now on that subject there seems to be almost like two mindsets around trading during

These conditions there's one where it's you know these conditions are too abnormal it's time to dial back the risk and then there's the other mindset which is this is a very rare opportunity right now it doesn't come around very often

Increasing risk is actually justified during periods like this how would you encourage a junior trader to think about you know which side they might be leaning towards I mean I do have a student he is a junior trader he's only

Been in you know it for six months and I'm like listen this is the market where you stand up and you know you show me how I know you have the balls it doesn't mean you go and be stupid it means you do a calculated risk right if

You see something and that that you like and you think you know you can surely make is a good chance you can make money you go step on it don't worry because in this market right there's gonna be so much opportunities

That if you are wrong you can always come back from it right in a dead market like you know two months ago you know if I was down thirty forty thousand I'm like yeah my day is done today I'm like listen if I'm down 20 also done I mean I

Was down I think I was down 60 yesterday and I finished the day up twenty you know so you know it's just like in days like this I'm not worried about being down because I know that's enough of watch it just come back when there's not

A positive that's the day when I'm like listen you know you gotta manage risk even harder right now I'm like you know what if the appacha tea is there you go take you've got to take the risk you might be wrong but there's other places

Where you can be right and come back from it you know so what my students is doing is like he's looking at mine of my traits and trying to like emulate the same thing and that's the way to do it you know I mean you know he sees I mean

Stuff because he's seeing that the craziness of this market very early in his career the next time he sees it he's gonna be you know even more aggressive and he'll stand up even more but right now he's like oh you know this guy's

Doing it so I'm just gonna like you know stand up because he's doing and he probably knows it's right but eventually that's how you learn you know you just have to you know hold someone's hand and walk and soon they'll

Start running themselves you know end of the day so I so yeah so to answer your question I would say you go take on risk it depends what I'm trader you are right I'm a day trader I'm in and out of positions quickly so I'm gonna sit on

Positions overnight and things like that nah you gotta you gotta be more sensible you got to be more maybe take a hedge or things like that right now I'm editing my slate every day because I mean either be up a thousand points we're down a

Thousand points forget up without a memory 2,000 points on the Dow these days yeah I think that's that's really wise nish how are you more specifically actually managing risk through this like are there any rules that you aren't

Forcing upon yourself I said you know I mean not to be stubborn about things you know unbelievable situations are happening a how do you at the same time you like you just have to say listen you know what you have to cut your losses

That's something which is ingrained in me you know I just see red and I just thought I start selling you know and this like I start covering my position or whatever after two I get out but I might get in again maybe like 15 minutes

Later again and you know trade trade the same stock again but I don't know my mind is conditioned there you know it's just like it's just a positive you know 16 years of you know trading and continuously doing it you just it just

Comes automatically to you now you know I just don't have to think about as much at the same time you know I just you know if you if you make one wrong move in this market you can get hit pretty badly so I'm just unless I double take

On everything I'm like you know what should I take this amount of sighs yeah okay fine let's go to it you know just have a second thought before I too sometimes you know in this market because it's such so crazy let me tell

You one thing also right in this market I haven't seen crazy panic yet yes we've been gapped down we have sold off all that but the panic of a flash crash has not been seen out here the panic of 2008 that I saw hasn't

Been saying senior and I feel like when that happens that's going to be the bottom of the mark you know very close to the bottom of the market and that's my personal view because it still been orderly selling

You know it hasn't been it just been a lot of selling but still been very ordered you know orderly selling like you know I remember in the flash crash I bought Home Depot but you know 6 17 18 points you know it fell it in about a

Minute today Home Depot is down 18 20 points but it's down over the whole day so you see the difference you know that the quickness and like the lack of liquidity that was there in flash crashes is not

Is not senior right as it right now it's still there's a lot of liquidity to get in get out of positions but yeah there's a lot of I think overnight you know there's a lot more happening then it happened back then see feel like we

Haven't seen that real big volume capitulation which often signals a bottom come in here exactly exactly we need to I mean this is what I think this is just me is that we need to open down you know swoosh

Down and then finish higher for the day and then come back and finish higher for the day get all the shots out you know and we're the day that happens I think it's a pretty good shot we're down to the close you know

The bottom of the market actually though but it has to happen at the open you know when you fall down and you trace back all those losses and you know finish up high the day that happens I think we might be at the bottom when the

Trading day is under why with so much moving right now how do you determine where to focus your attention that's where you know colleagues come in handy and you know you know you have your own ticker that you've programmed over over

A long period of time obviously though you know my company has great tools to go and figure and find situations that are unique and my friends you know if people sit in left and right of me you know we keep talking we keep saying like

Hey listen I'm checking out this wood and they saying you know we're checking out this symbol so it's great because you know this way you know we have two no three pairs of eyes you know watching three different things and I'm like

Listen call it call it when you think it's gonna turn and you know they'll call it when it's gonna turn I'm gonna call it when I see something turn just keep saying symbols and you know keep talking throughout the day I mean

This is the hardest I've ever worked in 16 years hardest I have sat on my on my desk for eight hours for the last I don't know 15 16 days lunch has been ordered inside I drink water so that I could go and pee it's just been it's

Just been crazy we all working so hard I mean I've never made it for the weekend as much as I've waited right now because and my wife was telling me the same thing she's like you know I've never heard you say that thank God the

Weekends here you always said that oh man I can't trade on a weekend you know so she's also like what she's like great man you you must be really tired because you're actually wanting a weekend coming you know and you know I mean you're

Passionate traders out here you know so it's like you know you just want to trade and it's just it's hard to get some sleep with a nine then you know at night because you're always thinking like a rubber band

When oil fell like 20 percent when Saudi did the you know that thing and I saw the future is down about 12 1,300 and I'm like oh my god like you know what's gonna happen in the night you know it's gonna be limit down I'm gonna halt you

Know the next day and you start thinking you started try to fall asleep and then suddenly at 1:30 in the morning you wake up and you're like you know what let me check the futures I check the future is like you know down 1,400 I'm like okay

Fine go back to sleep you know South you know still thinking about trading and how you gonna manage the day and things like that again you wake up at 4:30 you like you let me see the futures and you know you again try to go to sleep and

Then why 5:30 you again up and I'm like you know what makes no sense where is need to go to work and finish this day and then you know you crash off for the day just mentally drained yeah mentally drained physically drained

You know backs are hurting you know burning a wrist guard right now because I've typed I mean I think in this month I must have trained at least 1520 million shares at least I haven't I don't pay attention but I'm thinking

About two or three million a day at least one of the things I also wanted to ask you about this what I have Yee is how has your your approach altered from how you were trading earlier in the year like what have you done to adapt to this

Environment like the same way you were trading in January I presume is not the same way your trading right now I mean I'm sure it's probably similar in many ways but there are probably some adjustments as well yeah for sure I mean

I mean I was talking to a friend of mine yesterday and I'm like you know the way the stocks are falling see I was a reversal trader right so I'm looking for things going down and then I'm buying them and they're turning around in this

Market doesn't happen that often now anymore so we like you know wait you know when do we buy things that are going down there's because it's very different when a stock is short sell restricted because you know it's just

Like sell orders come in and they have to get done and how do you figure out when they are done because it's like you know I don't know who's selling on the other end but like you know they just come with a big-sized and they keep

Coming down down down down down down down down down you try to figure out how much is left in them and you know some sort of figure that out more right now that we're you know it's a challenge and that's how I was down 60,000 the other

Day because I was trying to buy it like the way I normally Buy in January and I'm like you know what things have changed the way to buy it now it's much later wait for the ultimate panic you know we used to have panic that time in

January and you would buy it and would turn around usually but now it's like a different level of panic and you see the level of panic that was there in January comes much earlier in the in the day out here so it's different so try to adapt

To that I think today was the first day I kind of adapted to that and I felt like okay you know what I'm seeing things differently when things are down you know 40 50 % even a 10% move after that can ruin your day you know so you

Just have to be super precise so I mean I'm in I'm out controlling my wrist because I know when I'm right it's going to be a three or four point move up so I can't give you no more than 40 50 cents if I'm wrong any time so trying to be

Wrong less obviously helps but I'm just trying to manage my dress controls because I know the time I'm going to be right I need to be in the right size and I need to be you know I and you take profits also because

These things move three four points so quickly and you like oh my god this looks amazing you know this came to trace back all fifty percent that's down today now it's not gonna happen the way that you you know it's to happen

In January where you know you would get a good retracement but slow and steady retrace but now that we trace one is much faster and much short-lived you know so those things are changed just you know adding both size to things that

You know one thing one thing that you know it's important and you learn is that once you have a bankroll like you know we get paid every month so let's say some up pretty good in a month right I don't mind risking more on good

Situations you know I'm like you know normally what I would take twenty thousand shares I might take you know seventy thousand shares eighty thousand shares I'm like I'm not scared to lose money and that only happens when you

Have a bankroll you know whatever you say very few traders have that kind of guts and that kind of you know I mean there are few traders that do it like you know doesn't matter to them how much they up or down in the month and they

Trade the same way for me mentally I know that's what I am but I have enough money lying you know in that month way you know I'm like I don't mind if I'm wrong and if I lose fifteen twenty thousand you know when I have when I'm

Up a decent amount I try and you know be more risky you know I'll try and push the envelope more I'll press my bets a little bit more I'll believe in myself a little bit more confidence automatically only comes when you're inside being

Right multiple times you know and then you start you know adding to your positions more and more and you believe in yourself and obviously the money comes along with it you know so you just start it's like it's like a you know

Clockwork you know and this works well when you when you do things right you know somehow for me it's like if I'm positive it's because I'm doing things right you know I try not to have a negative day because I charge my mind

Changes so it's is good to know yourself you know and I think I you know sixteen years of of trading you start to get to know yourself really yeah it's a long time man more specifically on this point here

How are you deciding on key points or maybe optimal points on where to enter and exit your your trades it's a toughie it's a tough question to answer without you know someone sitting right next to me and me explaining what the thought

Process was and I vented this trade you know because so many other factors in this market that that determine you know it's Trump tweeting it's you know press conferences it's the number of viruses that that are you know hitting

New York City or is New York City on a lockdown now San Francisco is on a lockdown you know it's just so much happening that even if a good set up is is is there it becomes it a bad set up because of what what what happens I mean

News at times so I mean you just have to you know you just have to say this this is this is where I want to be in if doesn't work out the way it is you cut your losses and move on it says risk management right now you know it's just

You know you will be right because you know the situation that that you want to see it's about you know other factors and you just have to be you know just be quick I mean that's something which we are you know I think you know we're very

Quick with our with our fingers like you know we kind of sell super quick and we you know we get in positions get our positions it's just you know we're pretty nimble it's not like you know like oh let's buy this hold it for like

10-15 minutes and then see what happens let's put a stop I'm not doing all that I'm just like in I'm like do I like it I like it okay fine it's working in my direction move on to the next set up and the way I do is I just I just arrange my

My PNL from from winners to loser so I'm just managing my losers most of the time and then I'll keep looking at the top winner and I start putting out orders to get out of those who knows you know so if they hit buy orders great if it

Doesn't I'm still watching everything as much as possible you multitasking man yeah I know that was a bit of a tricky question but I just wanted to ask it I was interested to hear how you would answer so very good man

A last question a knave done very well during this downturn ultimately what do you put it down to what skills and abilities have enabled you to make large gains one is obviously risk reward I've always said that second is

Experience you know honestly experience is a big factor in this it's about you know you've seen situations you know what to see in those situations you know how the clothes is gonna behave just you know just also knowledge of like you

Know just everything now after 16 years you just gather knowledge of so many different parts of the market so I feel like you know risk reward experience I think talking to other traders around me you know seeing what they are seeing

What they don't like sometimes you know you on it so just talk to traders manage your risk you know there's there's lots of you know just don't think about one side of the market always think that when someone is buying someone is

Selling you know someone thinks they are right and someone things they're wrong so you know just have that basic mentality in mind come in you know wake up early have a clear mind try to sleep well at one night I didn't sleep that

Great because and they're dragging like five cups of tea after that energy for the whole day and I was like a jittery mess not great I did great I did good that day but I just like you know didn't like the way I was about feeling at all

I don't know you know enjoy the enjoy for me it's like I enjoyed these moments also like it's it's like you know once in a lifetime kind of situation I'm like sitting throughout the day this is what I love doing and that's the most

Important thing I think is that if you love trading and you love being in front of the market somehow you'll you know you'll do it like my student you know he he so he works you saw her for Microsoft equate Microsoft appear trader because

He just loves what what he and he was telling me that this is the first time in his life that he's actually enjoyed something that he's doing so it's very important to enjoy because you will well if you enjoy something I feel yeah

All right nish well now you've got a run very shortly so I'll let you go I just wanted to take this opportunity to have a quick catch-up with you and sort of discuss what's been going on as of light so I really appreciate you taking the

Time I know you have a lot going on right now it's a busy period for you so yeah thanks once again yeah I learned the mark had been busy if there's even kids at home and the wife has to take care of both the kids so so I know it

Takes it takes a family to really run a trader it's not a one-man job it's you know it takes everyone you have a good team around you thanks man yeah all right nish enjoy your evening thanks for thanks for the call Aaron

Yeah we'll chat soon thank you thanks buddy you've reached the end of this episode of chat with traders but rest assured there are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way

Soon so to stay updated with each great new release subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and we'd love it if you leave a rating and review we'll catch you next time on chat with traders

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what's always remarkable about America is its scale this is a place used to being the biggest the strongest the richest right now though what startling is ...
how covert nineteen impacts on the NHS is a key determinant of how we respond next to the outbreak there are various figures from different parts of the NHS th...
dr. Unwin is guessing his bi-weekly covert test we're testing today you can either be tested on a Monday or a Tuesday morning the lab arranged to collect t...
When health workers started dying from covert 19 they seem to be disproportionately from black Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds now politicians have starte...