published on August 2, 2020


all right good afternoon boys and girls how we doing out there welcome to ready set live for today wednesday the 29th of july fed day is going on right now oh joy

Good afternoon everybody welcome aboard we're going to see if we can sweep some folks into here we're just emailing out now and letting everybody know that we're live we're going to be spending the next just uh

I'd say 20 minutes or so going over the five points and the trade of the day so without further ado let's get into things welcome aboard again my name is doc severson i'm with ready set trade ready set crypto and

We got uh let's see who we got out there cubsicle we got jugger ohms what's up what's up how's everybody doing out there coming to you live from greenville south carolina we are

About to get nailed with some storms right now so if i cut off if a tree falls on the power line you will know what's going on this realities of today's world

Let us know are you coming in from today while i get things kicked off okay so welcome to our live trade of the day session we're going to run this on a weekly basis you caught last week's

Here you go thanks for coming back again we'll do this every week as long as you guys get value out of it all right stephen from lake tahoe michelle could be either high or hawaii all right in

Today's session this is what i'm going to go over the fed is wrapping up the session right now they're wrapping up their meeting what changed in the policy statement what changed in their

And what's going on all right caleb good to see you from jolly old or old blighty whichever way you want to say it what are equity markets likely to do now have a small equities account do this

Today hey karen west of ireland outstanding digitex futures exchange mainnet launch is this friday and then we'll wrap things up with letting you know what i see happening in

The crypto market and then the trade of the day like i said we're going to be here for maybe 20-25 minutes if you have any questions we can take those at the very end

Meant to keep things short tight and wrapped up here so before further ado let's get into point number one the july feb meeting is going on right now jerome powell's probably given his press conference and

Going through the usual list of questions it's wrapping up did anything change is anything going to change no changes in the discount interest rate that's not a surprise they are staying

Supported with bond purchases as you if you could imagine jerome powell stepped up to the first tee pulled out his driver and hit one right down the middle of the fairway there were no surprises in what he said

Today there's a hundred percent chance of rates staying the same until next march nothing is going to change so to me this means the fed is out of play here's what they changed you

Can see some of the the verbiage that they've changed here employment picked up somewhat blah blah blah blah the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus

Hello that's a real stretch so goes the virus so goes the economy the fed's essentially out of the picture right now it's not that they don't have more that they can do

But right now they don't want to do anything more they have been able to support the market they're not necessarily supporting the economy but the two are not the same there's not much that

They can do to incite animal spirits to get activity going back again what are they going to do drop rates again what you know we actually have some yield curves showing negative rates

Coming up within a year or two which is uh a little bit odd and that may end up pushing even more capital into the markets right now there's no lack of liquidity

For those of you that went through the 2008 financial crisis that was all about a lack of liquidity markets were frozen nobody was lending money it's not the problem today it's all about certainty

It's all about the lack of certainty in today's environment so the extension to that are what are equity markets likely to do now into the end of the year or maybe into november

Let's look at things empirically for a second the s p has rallied about 48 off the bottom this has been and i said this way back then i was like there's no way that this is going to be bottom there's no oh i

Guess we're going to get a v bottom so so far this has been an extraordinary v bottom and a lot of this has been due to fed policy basically flooding the streets with

Dollar bills sitting out there at next to no cost there's no choice they have to do this they have to put money into assets that are going to provide some type of return again

There's no shortage of money right now so unlike most other crashes unless like most of the recessions where markets are just frozen up and just nobody's there's no velocity of money that's not the issue right now

That is not the issue at all so it's all about trying to find a home for this money lots are calling for the next crash if you read any kind of opinion that's out there

Everybody is like bearish bearish bearish and all the market has done is just climbed the wall of worry since that point i i don't currently share that opinion

Although i would say what would be very healthy for the market is for the weekly chart to set up a pretty significant pullback kind of like what we had back here a couple of times back

Near the latter part of 2019 we had some pretty significant pullbacks and all that did was just stoke up negativity and lead to higher prices down the road so even a complex

Decent pullback at a higher time frame would be actually very very good for this it's going to feel absolutely terrible if and when it happens more than likely will happen at some

Point here and when it does we can climb the wall of worry yet again yo greetings good to see you guys on board welcome aboard if you're just joining us here

We'll be here for maybe another 15-20 minutes just going over some points i see with the market equity markets crypto markets it's all it's all just part of the same piece of pie right

Here's something i'm not seeing a lot of people talking about so i've i've gone back years and i've done chart pattern studies or i should say i've been doing chart pattern studies for years

This is a broadening pattern this is a broadening pattern or megaphone pattern is another way of putting it notice how the volatility was very quiet back here into the end of 2017 very very quiet then all of a

Sudden it's like it's like something is just pounding on this thing right just going up and down and up and down this is called an undamped oscillation that the more

The more it moves the more it spins out of control it's almost as though for those of you that have ever driven on ice and snow you're driving straight down the road and all of a sudden you

Have to apply your brakes and also the back end kicks out so you counter steer in the opposite direction your rear end swings around the other way next thing you know you're going down the street and you

Know you're it's doing something like this before you finally spin out that's an undamped oscillation this is what happens with that that's that's the engineering nerd side of me

That comes out so to me this is just volatility increasing on a realized basis it's getting bigger and bigger and more unstable and guess why it's happening because of all this money

That's floating out there everything is being put into the stock market and so it's almost like this high wire act that's sitting there thousands of feet off the street with

Way too much weight another way to look at it it's almost like holding a very heavy weight at the top of a very skinny pole you can balance it at the top of your

Very skinny pole but don't let it move too far off center otherwise the whole thing comes crashing down and so more than likely is we'll end up in my mind hitting

New highs new highs before we hit new lows but then when we hit new lows that may be even worse than earlier this year okay so prepare yourself for volatility that's one thing i'd like to

To say here now maybe months away before we see that retail will be late to every trend change so i want you guys to beef up on your skills to be able to identify trend change

While it's happening and not wait for twitter to inform you that you need to act differently you know how that works in the short run apart from all the rampant liquidity flowing through the streets i don't see

What catalyst is going to overcome the massive amount of uncertainty going into november our election here so i think there's a very good chance that we have a repeat of

2016 where we just sort of went chop chop chop chop chop chop chop chop into the election i think there's so much uncertainty going into election a very very good chance that we chop around and arrange

For a while wild card here is that markets love gridlock a lot of this will not necessarily relate around the presidential election i think from the markets perspective

They don't care which candidate gets in there because they're both known quantities much the same as the 2008 election did not necessarily upset the market at the time it was a

Known quantity what happens is if all of the seats of congress if all of congress goes in one direction or another that's bad because what that means is that

Legislation tends to get passed much faster and markets hate legislation they love gridlock so if you want a supportive market then we have to have what's in there now we

Have to have a mix of who's in power across the board there's the chance that a vaccine might be the missing piece to the puzzle right but it's months off there's no way we're going to have a vaccine at the

2020 before it's commercially available right so it's all based on the speculation and the rumor as to whether or not it's going to be available markets are always forward-looking don't look at today's bad news

And try to trade off of it learn to trade options if you want to handle choppy markets learn the trade options and make money with the choppy sideways markets okay i'm particularly excited for you

Guys about this one if you have a small equities trading account you got to do this today several brokers are now allowing you to buy fractional

Stock shares this is for those of you that have come up through the crypto ranks and for a lot of you quite honestly the very first thing that you traded was crypto and so you've been

Migrating over to the equities market lately because that's moving and crypto hasn't although they're catching up today but you can't really do much with the account because a lot of these things

Like amazon three thousand dollars a share right nvidia 415 a share what do you do with that right you buy i bought a share of a company that's great

Okay so now what you can do is you can buy fractional shares which is just like you know splitting up your investments into satoshi's if you're into cryptocurrency so this is great this is very innovative

This long long overdue to do something like this so this is really cool you can trade either in dollar amounts you can say i want to buy me 25 of nvidia or give me 50 dollars of

Apple whatever fractional share amount that that runs into very cool so it's very flexible with how they do it now i don't know if they all i took this right off of the robin hood site this is how robin is

Doing it i would assume that they're all going to be doing it the same way but who knows so check with your broker on how they do it why is this important guys after

Talking for the last 15 years to to students about trading i would say the number one killer and this is why i call rule number one of risk management is to define your exits

Before you enter the trade people enter a trade and then they go holy crap it's not working against me what do i do now wait you know and now you're trying to make a very difficult decision and you've got a lot of emotion running

Off of that this is why the number one account killer is not putting in your exits before you enter and then hoping that you're going to somehow grok the the right intuitive way to exit that

Position this is what doesn't work number two though right behind it is trading positions are far too big for your account and it's i just see this again and again

And again you this is going to help you so no one position should create more than two percent risk to your account balance now listen to what i say this two percent

Risk not two percent utilization so a lot of people think that i'm saying oh wait a minute what does that mean i can't trade a position bigger than two percent of my account

No two percent risk and people don't know what risk means because they've never defined it before because they've never set a stop loss right so learn how to split up slice and dice

Your account so a lot of people will start off the discussion with saying i have two thousand dollars what should i invest in split it up right diversify diversify diversify so now you can do it

Much easily much more easily than before where you had these big unwieldy shares of things that you you know maybe could only buy one share of and it

Would hog a lot of capital in your account okay now we're going to switch over to the crypto markets digitex futures exchange is going live on their mainnet on friday finally

Digitex will be the only crypto futures exchange with commission free trading i i should say the only period futures exchange with commission free trading we brought this to the market's

Attention about two years ago if you want to you can find our channel you can go back about two years ago and i did a whole like session a whole interview session i thought it was the greatest thing i'd

Ever heard of and i was we we did like a 40 minute video on digitex and why it was great and why it was going to change the world and here we are two years later finally finally we have it okay we've

Been waiting somewhat and patiently for this so being able to scalp one tick in the futures market without the friction of commissions has been a dream of every trader so what

Does that mean okay this is a screenshot of the exchange so if you've never done something like this before and if you're just joining us welcome

Aboard this is doc siverson here with ready set live session for ready set crypto and ready settrade here are the prices on the ladder this is a ladder interface you may not

Have never seen something like this before usually you've got these big buttons that are up here like this and one of them says you know sell and the other one says buy right big green and red buttons buy and

Sell well that is so cumbersome because if you have to actually change the price of these things you know markets move so quickly so you're sitting here fumbling around

Trying to put in the price and meanwhile the market's off and running this is a ladder interface and once you trade with a ladder interface you'll never want to go back to anything else again

So if i want to buy something i'm going to sit on this side of the ladder if i want to sell something i'm going to sit on this side of the ladder these are the bids these are the offers don't worry about

The names of anything right now so if i want to do a limit order for the price being maybe 11 235 if i want to maybe sit sit down here and say look i don't want to buy until it's

Comes down to this level at 11 220 maybe i've determined that that's a support level or something like that so i'm going to buy it at this level and then what i'll do is i'll simply put in

A sell order up here so if i buy down here i'll put in the sell order up here or wherever it ends up being and then what i'm going to do is i'm going to gain the difference

Between my entry or in in this case the entry down here and what i sell it for up here okay that's simple and then i can turn around and do the exact same trade i can sell to open and if the price is

Going down here then i can buy to close down here so this is a bi-directional type of arrangement right i have no i'm i'm not just long only i'm not just short only i can be flexible

I can be very i can flow with the market depending on which way it's going whether it's going down or whether it's going up right so trade with that trend so this is what a

Futures ladder looks like and also they've got some important things like stock markets and stop limits and this way you can set your risk on here it's not just a scalper you can actually trade swings with this

Walk away and you've got a totally protected offer or a totally protected order in place okay and right now it's just btc usd but they plan on doing more assets than that so once they get this

Up and stable you see other top five futures assets and then maybe even index futures like the s p or the russell or the nasdaq in there as well too and that

Is going to be truly transformative so if they're able to do this if they're able to deliver stability and not only the exchange but the other end of the equation is the the trading currency right so if digitex

The utility token itself varies around too much then this is going to defeat the purpose of the trade if they're able to stabilize that then this will be a paradigm shift for

Futures and bot trading imagine bot trading on something that's free okay so what i would recommend that you do doesn't cost anything right does not cost anything to sign up for an

Account you can go in and play with a test net with a whole bunch of tokens so go in there sign up get on the test net learn to trade this thing it's very simple sign up for access start trading

And then on friday you can fund it and get moving okay so we'll finish up here what's happening in the crypto market well good stuff right bitcoin and the top ten are

Breaking out last week when we met last wednesday price was sitting down here and i was like okay this thing's going nowhere range contraction leads to range contract

Range expansion this is what we always talk about so they're breaking out and ethereum is up 33 percent in a week and this was a beautiful little inverted head and shoulders pattern

That actually delivered way more than the expectations are so this is very nice little bass range contraction range expansion so i would expect to see more contraction in at least the near future

Of these as they kind of catch their breath which is what they we want them to do we don't want them to just go unimpeded to the upside without some type of

Pullback which builds up the negativity and keeps a trend going you want that negativity you want those bears to get involved and to get over committed however altcoins versus btc are getting

Pounded because of the cost basis right so i mean this is tazos versus btc it's getting drilled right so if btc is launching you don't want to be going into altcoins you want to be

Going into dollar denominated assets so everyone remembers 2017 you know fondly in the altcoin boom but for now stick with the dollar denominated assets like that you can buy through coinbase or the

Top ten especially btc and ethereum are strong also sell puts against strong assets that have options available so if you're in different parts of the world you can use

Derebit if you're in the united states you can use ledger x i'm hoping that these offerings will strengthen with increased activity and we will have new offerings which may

Even hit the larger exchanges down the road as well too increasing liquidity and making that edge available just about everywhere okay so that's our top five now we're

Going to get into the trade of the day which is what i posted this morning now this is a very contrarian trade why on earth would i go against apple so apple what i'm looking to do here and in fact

What i should probably do is bring up a price chart let's bring up a current price chart on apple now they are going through earnings tomorrow so tomorrow after market so i want to

Put out this trade of the day today so people would have a chance to kind of assimilate it and see what's going on so if we go to apple what i'm saying is that i'm expecting to see

Some type of a price spike to the upside some type of a price spike to the upside like apple comes out with their earnings boom okay spike to the upside i want to sell into that now if you want

To sell into that with 100 shares you're going to need 40 grand if you're going to do a short stock position and i hate short stock positions because if you hold it through a dividend

Guess what you get to pay the dividend also short stock positions have unlimited risk to the upside are you kidding what are you doing shorting apple no this is a trade what i want you to

Look at is every time that apple has reported earnings over the last year or so we've had a spike up and then it gets faded back down because the same thing keeps happening because

Retail chases it up to the announcement and then it gets faded back down temporarily temporarily so here's another one gets faded back down

Here's another one gets faded back down gets pumped up and gets faded back down again what do you think is going to happen here we've already pumped this thing up what i want to do is i want to see this

Thing hit 400 and it may not happen tomorrow it may happen friday it may happen next week but as soon as it hits 400 which is the prior resistance level at this point as long as it happens within a day or

Two then i think what we do is we go over to the options chain and probably a 14 august we don't need that much time and all we have to do is and this also is going to have to be when it gets up

To about 400 but we're going to be buying the 400 put and then selling simultaneously the 397 and a half so this limits our risk should be about a dollar 25 or less than

That by that time so it limits our risk on the trade to no more than about per contract which is significantly less than if we just even bought the put

Right now the at the money puts are going for over a thousand dollars so for all you guys that want to just do puts and calls it's prohibited expensive to do that right now on apple but if you learn how

To do spreads you can do that at a fraction of the cost you can take a contrarian trade get some value take the other side of the herd on the trade and have a little bit of fun with

Earnings without doing the same thing as everybody else okay my friends that is all i have for today if you want tomorrow's trade of the day you're welcome to join us over here at set

Dot trade slash free so just put your email in there we promise not to spam you we'll be we'll take good care of your email address we'll sign up for a 100 a day trading

Course and add you to our discord where all the cool stuff happens so this is where the trade of the day occurs and all the other discussion so we don't pound people we don't we're not

Going to market to them like some other people do so we just want to build a community out there of like-minded folks at readysettrade on our discord okay

So unless you have any other questions i'll stick around here for a couple of minutes we've come in on time it's near the bottom of the hour here got about a half an hour left for the market before the closing bell and

Then we'll wrap it up and look forward to thursday lexus is asking can we expect a pullback on btc i would like to sell some puts if i only knew

Let me get my like who was that was that sauron or saruman who had that like globe that you'd be able to see things into the future and stuff i've misplaced mine in the move

I don't know where it is so i don't trade based on trying to understand what's going to happen in the future although it would seem differently like that all i do is i trade based on probability

So i think the probabilities are such that yeah you might get some type of a pullback more than likely you'll get some type of a sideways consolidation uh cory i don't know what crpt is

So i heard you say not to trade into alts but would you recommend trading alts at all yes okay what i was saying is hold off like while the top 10 is going crazy especially

Bitcoin is going crazy or ethereum is going crazy don't trade alts against them wait until they consolidate and then it's almost like a baton handoff at a relay race right if

You have your ethereum or your btc which is if you have a coin if you have an altcoin and if you're trading versus btc if you're using vtc to purchase that then basically what you're doing is

You're shorting btc on that pair and so you've got to wait for it to be stable or maybe even heading down before you enter otherwise you're going to crush yourself

With this so anytime you trade altcoins wait till you have a stable arrangement which is why it's always preferable to trade something versus the usd which is a lot simpler to trade with you don't have to

Worry so much it's much more stable okay all right i think we're good to go thanks everybody for joining me here today with ready set live and we'll see you guys

Next week adios amigos you

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