The Easiest Problem Everyone Gets Wrong

published on July 9, 2020

Vsauce Kevin here and I am about tostretch my Winky until it snaps actuallyI've got three of these anti-stressemoji people called Winkies only onewill survive and you will witness anincredibly simple problem that almosteveryone gets wrong and at the end get

To the bottom of one of the most famousprobability problems ever it's time tomeet the Winkies orange purple and bluethey've been sentenced to death but justone will be pardoned the other two arewalking The Green Mile but they don't

Know which two it will be all they knowis that I warden Kevin get to decideright noweach weekís chance of survival is 1 outof 3 so 1 over 3 plus 1 over 3 plus 1over 3 equals 1 with every Winky having

An equal shot at living there's noparadox here yet the fairest leastbiased way to choose which Winky livesis to put 3 slips of paper into a hatand randomly draw a color a mix aroundyour slips and here we go but what if

They know that I drew a color yet Idon't tell them which one it isthese Winkies would be left to wonderwho will live who will die and whattheir own personal odds of survivalreally are Kevin Kevin given you can

Tell me I can keep a secrettell me who will live my Winky istalking to me and I think I recognizethat voice a keeper of internet historyhow'd you end up on death row anyway Ican't tell you who survives it's it's

Just not fair and I definitely can'ttell you whether you live or die Iunderstand you bear a heavy burden justtell me one of the Winkies that will beexecutedif purple lives tell me blue if blue

Lipstell me purple and if I'm going to livejust choose which of the other two you'dlike to name do this for me Kevin QueensI don't know orange Winky it reallydoesn't seem fair

Please given pretty please us ourhandsome and those glasses look so goodon youokay what's the harm I can't possiblygive orange Winkie any usefulinformation here okay

Blue will be executed right now I didn'tmean to put his body fact that wayupside down but you know what wardenKevin is uh is a cruel warden Kevin youfoolnow I know my odds are 50/50 I will live

Or purple will live there is noalternative use stupid stupid man ohhe's so dumb and also fatoh no he's right I got tricked by aWinky now there are only two choices onewill live and one will not so his odds

Improved from one out of three to 50/50right wrong orange Winky you still onlyhave a one out of three chance to liveand purple Winky is actually twice aslikely to win the pardon this may remindyou of the Monty Hall problem and we'll

Get to why that's important later butfor now let's break down the onlypossible scenarios that orange Winkyfaced remember that I can't tell orangeWinky whether he lives or dies when Inamed blue we can compare the two

Possible outcomes after naming bluescenario one where I named blue andpurple lives as a one out of threeprobability of occurring scenario threewhere I main blue and orange lives has aone out of six chance of happening since

One over three is twice as large as oneover six and since there are the onlytwo possible outcomes after naming bluemeaning their probabilities have to addup to one purple actually has a two outof three chance of survival and orange

Only has aout of three chance of avoidingexecution the probabilities of twoevents that appear to be equally likelyjust aren't and we can't handle that orit's time to reveal which wiki will live

In which Winkie will die this slip ofpaper determines our survivor and purplelives sorryorange definitely time for you to knowadversities come history my body isstatic because I called you fat I am

Deadwelcome to the three prisoners problemwhich is actually the Bertrand's boxparadox and kind of the Monty Hallproblem but mostly the Bertrand's boxparadox which came out the same year the

Eiffel tower opened van Gogh painted thestarry night and Nintendo cope I firststarted producing playing cards theyeventually made video games in 1889seventy years before a recreational mathcolumnist Martin Gardner started playing

Mind games with prisoners on theirexecution date French mathematicianJoseph Bertrand published calcul desprobability in which he posed theparadox that became the basis thegenesis for Monty Hall and will require

Me to stick my wing keys in pudding letme explain after making me a plate of 10DS and my favorite dipping sauce my momsecretly hid Winkies in these threelarge candy dishes full of pudding oneof them contains two Winkies of the same

Color another one contains two Winkiesof a different color and then onecontains one Winky each of those twocolors I'm pretty sure that mom said oneWinky color is yellow but I'm not surewhat the other one is

It's just so much grosser than I thoughtit was gonna be uh let's reveal thisWinkies color oh thank you for lookingme clean Kevin your tongue is so smoothhow are you alive you can't kill meKevin we're friends now

Okay well clearly we have an orangeWinkie somehow back from the dead and weknow that the second Winkie color isyellow but what are the chances that theother Winky in this pudding is alsoorange we know that the three dishes are

Orange orange orange yellow and yellowyellow each combination is equallylikely to be chosen at the start we alsoknow that this can't be the yellowyellow dish because I just pulled outthe creepiest orange Winky on the planet

That means it's coming from orangeorange or from orange and yellow andboth had the same chance of beingselected once we pull the orange Winkywe know that the odds the other Winky inthis dish is orange is 50/50 because

I've clearly chosen either the orangeorange pudding or the orange yellowpudding right wrong again for the samemathematical reason as our prisonerproblem this is the mathematicalfoundation of all these scenarios our

Inability to recognize that what appearsto be 50/50 really isn't hold on beforeI explain further let's just find outreal quick where the Winkies are becauseI actually don't know well this wasorange orange oh so was orange orange

Jar number two I can't even tell yaokay that's yellow now is this oneorange or is this the yellow yellow jartime to find out looks orange looksOrange let's see yep there's the otherorange so that was our yellow orange

Which means that thisto be the yellow yellow yellow yellow Ialready have to clean up this pudding orelse we can't continue the video so I'llbe right backall right now that the Vsauce mukbang

Portion of our video is complete let'sget to the root of this problemBertrand conceived his original paradoxwith gold and silver coins in boxes hehad the same basic setup we used goldgold gold silver and silver silver with

The player reaching into a random boxdrawing a gold coin and wondering aboutthe odds of that box containing anothergold coin once we pull a gold coin or anorange Winky or one of the prisoners tobe executed it feels like our odds of

Whatever comes next are an equal 50/50we're just choosing between two leftoveroptions that appear to be equally likelywe know the other coin is either gold orsilver but look if you pull a gold coinyou either pull gold coin one gold coin

Two or three and at this point youconceptualize with the two silver coinsyou don't know exactly what it is butyou do know what it's not if you choosegold one the other coin is gold too ifyou choose gold two the other coin is

Gold one if you choose gold three you'llget silver one so two out of three timesyou draw a goldit'll be paired with another gold andonly one time out of three will you getstuck with silver but it's almost

Impossible to shake the notion of twoequivalent options even when the mathshows us that it's wrong it's the samereason why the Monty Hall problem is aproblem the prisoner problem and MontyHall add a story to the math and an

Additional third party it seems likethat would make it more complex but itactually helps you understand theprobability more easily adding a secondplayer's perspective lets us see thatthe warden will never reveal who lives

In Monty Hall will never reveal the doorwith the moneydespite that additional information westill get it wrong why is it so hardwhen the solution is right in front ofour face probably because it is right in

Front of our face and it's why very verysmart people often get it more wrongthan right I mentioned this in my whatis a paradox video but when Marilyn Vossavant wrote in Parade magazine thatswitching doors in the Monty Hall

Problem resulted in a two over threechance of success instead of being anobvious 50/50 trade parade received over10,000 letters telling her she was wrongabout 1,000 of them were signed by PhDsand she claims many were sent on

Official letter heads from college mathand science departments and I still getcomments on my video from people allover the world telling me that I'm wrongMassimo Pia telly pol Marini author ofinevitable illusion said that no other

Statistical puzzle comes close tofooling all the people all the time andresearch in 1995 by Grands Berg andbrown found that only 13% of peoplecorrectly switched Monty halls doors ina 2003 paper in the Journal of

Experimental Psychology Stefan Kraus andXT Wang described these particularproblems from Bertrand's box to MontyHall as cognitive illusions stating thatthey demonstrate people's resistantdeficiency in dealing with uncertainty

They found that only 3% in the controlgroup solved the problem withmathematically correct reasoning andthat a significant problem wasperspective when participants were ableto think of the problem from the

Perspective of Monty Hall instead of thegame show contestant or thinking as mewarden Kevin instead of as the prisonerorange Winky blew their chances ofchoosing the right pathway improvedvaulting them from simple non-bayesian

Thinking into more complex Bayesiananalysis in the 1990s it appeared thatthere was no way to break themathematical illusion of Bertrand's boxthe three prisoners or the Monty Hallproblem explaining the math just didn't

Seem to work it turns out the math isn'tthe problemwe are uncertainty is hard for uschanging perspectives is harder you'rewatching this video because you're asmart Jarius person and by altering your

Perspective you don't just dismiss amathematical illusion that has perplexedus for over a century because you'veidentified its flaw you don't just solveit you embrace it you absorb it youunderstand it and you ultimately use it

To your advantage you know it and I knowthat I have so much pudding to eat andas alwaysthanks for watching puddingI mean Oh surpriseyou like thinking problem-solving logic

And technology but what if you want tocreate technology where do you startwell this video is sponsored by FullSail University which offers bachelor'sand master's degrees that focus on theevolving needs of the technology

Industry through hands-on accelerateddegree programs you can familiarizeyourself with the same tools and techused by industry professionals and withdegrees like computer scienceinformation technology mobile

Development simulation and webdevelopment there are a variety ofdegree programs offered to help youbuild a very specific skillset so tolearn more about full sales programs aswell as potential scholarship

Opportunities visit Full Sail edu slashvsauce2by orange you glad I didn't say bananaI'm picking up what you're putting downwho put you up who put you up to thisKevin no Kevin stop you're stretching me

Like mrs incredible on a first date

Related Videos

hey guys techrax here coming at you guys with another giveaway this is gonna be an iPhone 5s two of these brand new phones not the one in this video guys this i...
hey guy there's a popular game in the app store called flappy bird right now and it's supposedly really annoying believe it or not I haven't played ...
hey guys tech Rex here so right here with me I have an Apple iPhone 5s this is the gold one I also have with me some liquid nitrogen yes this is the real deal a...
hey guys techrax here right here I have the iPhone 5s with me this is the champagne or the gold color I still can't really figure out if it's champagne ...
hey guys tear cracks here so this video really exciting video I have the new Samsung Galaxy s5 for you guys this is the long-awaited cellular devices releases i...
everyone techrax here in this video I've got the latest Samsung Galaxy s5 right here as well as the Apple iPhone 5s and we're going to be doing a simple...
everyone techrax here in this video guys have a really exciting device this is the Samsung Galaxy s5 charcoal black and I'm really liking I after seeing the...
everyone techrax here here with me off the Samsung Galaxy s5 this is a perfectly fine s5 it is cracked from the drop test that I had with also one minor neck as...
hey guys tetrax here so in this video I'm going to try and burn the newly released Samsung Galaxy s5 this is the shimmering white 16 gigabyte model and if y...
everyone techrax here so I got my burn Samsung Galaxy s5 and I wanted to see whether the heartbeat sensor would still work the heart monitor on your galaxy s5 a...
hey guys Tech Rex here so I'm really excited to bring you guys a giveaway for my channel but this time I'm actually teaming up with a buddy of mine your...
hey guys techrax here so in this video I'm going to be hopefully instructing you guys how to make your very own a tech sandwich slash burger slash meal so y...
hey guys techrax here so I've got a galaxy s5 here this is the copper gold hopefully you guys can see pretty well it is sunset so it's getting a little ...
hey guys techrax here so right here with me I have a professional deep fryer in here is already some canola or corn or whatever oil I don't know vegetable o...
hey guys techrax here so just trying to make this video short and quick i'm having recently i got five hundred thousand subscribers and yeah most of you guy...
hey guys texture so in this video I have a drop test on the latest LG g3 device now this is actually the gold-coloured LG g3 this has not been released in the U...
hey guys techrax here so in this video we'll teach you guys how to make your iPhone indestructible this is essentially a case that's been around for yea...
hey guys techrax here soon in this video we had a train run over the iPhone 5s so we actually did this in two different instances initially we had a Space Gray ...
hey guys tech cracks here so in this video we're going to be dropped testing the newly released Amazon fire phone this is exclusive for AT&T and I belie...
hey guys techrax here so right here with me I have the Amazon fire phone this is the one I dropped and you know I thought what better what else do I do with thi...
Be the first to comment “The Easiest Problem Everyone Gets Wrong”

There are no comments yet.