Stock Market CRASH THIS WEEK? 2020 Stock Market Bubble Now? How To Invest

by birtanpublished on August 23, 2020

Time for another marker review only this time i'm coming to you from this place which i know is not a kitchen and i know you're probably thinking ak how can you cook up your fire content without your sink and your stove right here

I really don't know i mean maybe i should get a george foreman right here instead what do i got this phallic looking mic this chair back here that just looks like it's staring at you or this fake tree which you know doesn't

Even reach the ground it's all very sad i don't know it's like i'm doing the opposite of the jeffersons just moving on down this place looks like the stock market without powell just a mess

Speaking of powell you're probably wondering why i even do these videos anymore because it seems to be clear that the stock market only goes up day after day why even consider any other outcome just put your money in and

You'll have more money tomorrow right maybe but let's look at the data but of course as always before we get started this free training is important if you haven't taken it already there's a link

In this video and down below in the description and comments teaches you our entire strategy the same one i use and a lot of our foul members use as well definitely check it out because yeah it does really well in these types

Of markets that constantly go up but who's not doing well but more importantly it saves you when the market tanks which you might not remember but that does happen alright let's get into it

And let's start with this quote from samuel smiles it will generally be found that men who are constantly lamenting their ill luck are only reaping the consequences of their own neglect mismanagement and in

Providence or want of application meaning a lot more is in your hands than you think so stop complaining don't complain about the new room that you're in to record videos just fix it thanks samuel i feel like this is a direct shot

At me but on to the market so the two key pillars of this rally off the march 23rd lows have been incredibly bearish sentiment and extreme under positioning and risk assets but

Both of these have been chipped away as sentiment and positioning have chased prices higher they are now no longer a tailwind to risk assets and you can see here this blue line has spiked from the bottom

Is getting back into a normal range and this is a sentiment index and what do we know about sentiment the more bearish it is the better it is for the stock market because that's more money on the sidelines to come in

It's that wall of worry that the market can keep climbing but if everyone's bullish that's when you gotta look out below that's when people get over leverage they start putting too much money in

And then what other money can go into the market they're overextended then you see the thing fall so it's counterintuitive in that way so the fact that sentiment is recovering and people are feeling better is not

Necessarily bullish for the stock market we need some volatility to shake things up now over the last few weeks we've seen some rotation into small cap value versus growth and momentum so this graph down here shows the pattern that this

Usually follows small casts this black line usually follows the blue line which are the large caps large caps just trend ahead so if this works out then small caps should soon start to materially

Outperform but looking at it another way there's a good chance that that outperformance will come from falling less versus rising more you can see here if we see this then small caps will just be

Safer assets to stay in and both of these charts this one and the one before are both market action after steep drops in sentiment which is exactly what we saw here right this huge steep drop but now it's recovering and

This is going all the way back to 2002. now the spx has obviously had a few very strong months but right now it's in the weakest two-month seasonal period of the year so if you take a look at this heat map you

Can see with the 30-year average historically june is not a good month and neither are august and september our august has been pretty good we'll have to see what happens in september and obviously our january through march

Were horrible so we might not see that seasonality here in september now in the hierarchy of markets which is basically which markets you can follow that are leading indicators for

Everything meaning between equities bonds metals commodities those types of things credit traders sit near the top right below metals traders basically in this hierarchy all we say is that certain

Traders depending on what market they're trading they're going to know information way before everyone else because if something happens in the metals market say something bearish then you know it's

Going to trickle down into every other market that's why we call it the hierarchy so for example in metals if things are bearish metal prices are coming down what does that mean less construction going on globally

Which is an indicator of the economy which will eventually hit equities right so here we're talking about credit traders who sit right underneath those metal traders they're second on the list

Which is why credit leads equities because credit kind of shows you the risk appetite in the market so we should be concerned right now about the widening credit spreads

So if you see right here this red line is the credit line it's turning lower meaning it's no longer confirming this higher movement stocks you can see how they kind of move together with credit being that leading

Indicator now we're not calling for a top here because the probability is that the market is going to keep running higher but if this doesn't fix itself meaning the red line and the rest of the market move together then we might see a

Drop so this red line needs to recover the credit line meanwhile the median p has doubled since the march low and now it's at record highs as shot out real quick you can see that right here

It's at 22 now and positioning the nasdaq which is this blue line here is extremely elevated according to ubs which isn't really surprising given that you could just invest in the fang stock and it's going to keep going up that's

What i was talking about earlier seems too easy and that's what everybody has been doing getting into the few tech stocks leading the market and that's why there's over positioning now now the macro backdrop to all of

This is a white house and a congress in recess until early september after failing to make any progress on fiscal talks and that's bad news especially considering the fact that banks have essentially stopped

Lending so here's a passage from morgan stanley discussing the latest fed slo survey and slo is the senior loan office and that survey indicates that banks reported much tighter lending standards across all

Loan categories and that acceleration and tightening is faster than anything seen during the global financial crisis demand was also weaker in all categories except the residential mortgage with commercial and industrial loan demand

Falling sharply as companies pay down credit lines banks tighten standard across all loan categories at an accelerating pace so you can see right here this huge spike is net tightening happening while

At the same time we're getting weaker demand and what do we know about liquidity we want to have money flush in the economy so everyone can borrow and everyone can pile it in the stock market but at least

For the companies that are getting loans from these banks you know they needed to keep going with business because yeah tech companies are doing great but what about everyone else there's still much lower economic

Activity so it seems like yeah powell is able to come in and stimulate everything and everything is okay but now when you look at this data it looks like it's very fragile so as soon as the money slows down a little bit

Things start falling apart especially considering this was the fastest tightening that's happened way faster than anything seen in the financial crisis kind of crazy another topic we hear about constantly

Now is the end of the dollar because of all this printing and if this u.s dollar bull market is over it would be the shortest one ever a bullish development for the euro which is bearish for the usd

Is the recent creation of a european supernational fiscal program so credit suisse points out that there's plenty of room for the euro to increase its role as a reserve currency considering that the usd is gonna die or

Everyone thinks it is who's gonna take its place euro is looking better you can see right here euro as a percentage of allocated fx reserves is much lower than the usd so lots of room for people to switch

Over from the dollar and here's a chart from morgan stanley showing the monetization levels or the arpu and arpu is the average revenue per user of every big tech platform and it looks like youtube is by far the most under

Monetized digital asset out there facebook being number one by huge margin tick tock being the lowest we haven't figured that out yet but youtube is surprising so it looks like google isn't monetizing you guys

Properly all of you watching this video which funny enough for these videos if you make them over 10 minutes which is why you see every youtube video over 10 minutes you get double ads so that means more revenue for google and more revenue

For the creator but starting in october or november i don't remember they're actually reducing that mark from 10 minutes down to 8 minutes so what you're probably gonna see is a lot more eight minute videos because no

One has to stretch to ten anymore and those eight minute videos will get the double ads which is just another way that google is trying to monetize bring up this arpu of nine dollars to something a little better that's

Interesting though that facebook is so much higher they really got monetization down and lastly there's a lot to like about natural gas and natural gas stocks right now the capital cycle is supportive of a cyclical bottom and

Sentiment is as bad as it can get and the curve is at levels that tend to coincide with bottoms so if you're looking at any natural gas companies this is the time to look a little harder

But if you want a very easy strategy that's easy to execute yet very effective then remember just to check out this training there's a link in this video and down below in the description and comments

It's free definitely watch it and it actually simplifies a lot of the analysis that we're doing here it codes it all up so you have an algorithm that takes all of this into account so you don't have to worry about it definitely

Check out that training and one more thing i wanted to talk about in this video is actually the last video we did on bill gates i was shocked to see almost every single comment calling bill gates

A murderer saying he's trying to depopulate the world with vaccines i thought maybe a few people thought this but in the comment section it was like everybody no one believed in

Science is wild and i just don't understand why people hate bill gates so much when he literally dedicates all his time to helping people but for some reason everyone thinks instead of helping

People he's actually trying to kill them in some sinister plan which is why i now understand why he sounded so annoyed in that interview with the conspiracy theories so the big one that i learned about

Through these comments that i didn't know about was bill trying to depopulate the world billy g that's who we're talking about the reasoning for this theory

Is that there was an interview where bill gates did say the world is overpopulated and vaccines should fix that so i don't know if this was taken out of context or what so people immediately thought okay vaccines

Are meant to kill people that's why bill gates is doing all this but really what he was saying and he said it multiple times and explained it very clearly is that the reason families in developing nations have

So many kids is because they're not sure all those kids will survive there's a much higher mortality rate for those kids in the developing countries so they pop out like eight of them just in case four

Of them pass away or something because they don't know but if you introduce vaccines then those kids are much more likely to survive into adulthood meaning that people won't have to have those eight kids

You don't have to play the numbers which is crazy to think about because they're kids but that's how bad it is over there so billy g explained that even though it's counter-intuitive saving more lives will

Reduce the population because of that fact that you don't have to have so many kids it'll be more like in the western world where you could have two kids and be okay

In fact no one really wants more than two kids so i don't really get why that got twisted so hard and then of course the microchip thing like billy g is trying to implant microchips into you do you not remember that he's the guy

Who started microsoft most of the things that everybody is using has those chips in them so if you wanted to do that it's already done he doesn't need vaccines to do it and the stupidest comments i saw were people

Saying ak you're drinking the kool-aid you need to think for yourself and thinking for yourself yeah i agree about that but for a lot of this stuff especially with this pandemic and things that bill gates is doing

How exactly are you thinking for yourself are you collecting your own data on mortality rates at a certain point we're all getting second hand data which makes it very tough because that data can be

Manipulated so even in this whole ccpv thing we don't even know how many debts are actually happening because every state is recording them differently i see these twitter threads all the time explaining oh this is not right this is

How you do it so it's all interpreted differently and i understand the distrust in the government and maybe in these billionaires too but i don't know you can't convince me that you found some

Website on the internet and that's the real data oh i did the calculations for numbers i found on wikipedia do you think what you're doing is any better than what the experts are doing where's all this data

Even coming from i don't know i agree in general think for yourself but also there's many scenarios where you don't have all the information and you don't even know if it's the right information it's like when these

Chinese companies publish their quarterly reports yeah let me look at that data and think for myself but in reality all that data is skewed a lot of it is fabricated and made up just to look good

That's why i actually think they should de-list all those chinese companies anyways i was surprised by the comments on that video but it is what it is maybe it's a side of the times and maybe everyone is right

And i'm completely wrong that's why i stay fallible but as of right now none of that stuff made sense to me all the conspiracies anyway check out the training link here and down below in

The description and comments and if you like this video make sure you subscribe that way i could do another market review and another video about bill gates so everyone can comment with crazy stuff once again

Or maybe it's not so crazy and i'm the crazy one who knows find out in the next episode maybe this tree will grow probably not because it's fake anyway subscribe and i'll see you in the next

Video stay followed out there bye you

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