Stock Market Crash End Of September? What You Need To Know: Stock Bubble – Stocks To Buy Now

by birtanpublished on September 26, 2020

Another market review yes we're doing one so soon after the last one because well markets are moving so i figured i'd update you guys a little more frequently because i feel like people only care about looking for information when the market

Is going down anyway everybody's a genius when the market goes up like this but yeah we're going to do our review today figure out where markets are headed from here because they seem to be

Continuously dropping and at the end i got an interview for you with one of the greatest traders to ever do it this interview is actually hilarious you need to stick around for it so we'll play that right after we

Figure out whether we're in crash territory or not and as always if you haven't taken our free training yet to learn the strategy that we're using in these markets then do that now

There's a link in this video and down below in the description and comments like i said this market is falling and this is where you really need risk control if you don't have it already and that comes

Through in your strategy that risk control is why our strategy hasn't taken many losses even though market is down what over 10 percent now we're still up over 55

It's not magic just risk control if you want to learn more about how we're doing it myself and all our fallable members definitely check out this training so three weeks ago if you've been watching these videos

We were talking about the 10 sell-off and that just happened yesterday i'm recording this friday morning early morning so what we said all those weeks ago and what we're still saying now is that this

Is a short-term move lower it's just a short i would say 10 to 20 correction but the risk reward greatly favors the upside and an eventual punch through the top side of this broadening top pattern which you can see

Right here it's interesting when you zoom out on these charts because you can actually see the market may not be moving the way you thought it was it's actually within a

Huge range but as we're saying we think it could break out from this broadening top right here and then you'll have again the massive bull going but the near term path over the next few weeks

Really hinges on the fiscal stimulus talks because that's what this market is moving on you think it's moving on the fundamentals of the economy no of course not it's moving on how much

Money the government and the fed can pump and that's why it goes back to fiscal talks the fiscal stimulus is what fueled this rally off the march lows and it's what's needed to drive the market up and out of its three-year trading

Range this being the three-year trading range here now if we don't get another trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus then we're going to be in trouble because

We're going to see a lot of large-scale layoffs in companies going under especially if we run into this fall period where a second wave of kovit comes through nobody really knows how the ccpv is gonna go during

This period so if those worst case scenario things happen then we're likely gonna see extended sideways volatile movement so just trading within the range again now we talked about this before but a big thing that we're

Looking at are the monthly bars so you can see september we've had a pretty bad month we're getting a fat bare bar and a signal like that means that in october we're likely going to head lower now because we had these five

Bars before here they were bullish the downside is probably a little capped because eventually buyers will come in because they see a deal but yeah you can see the bar a little better right here it does not look good so we'll likely

Print another bearish bar in october we'll see though what happens there's still a few trading days left in this month we might recover a little bit but if we're really getting into the technicals here you know it looks like

We're stuck under this 50-day moving average now we pretty much sliced through it you can see here we had some support which is what the 50-day normally does because everyone's watching it rebound it a bit

But then turn around and head it lower immediately and slice through so that next support level could be this 200-day moving average which means a correction of how much another

Three and a half four percent that would bring the total correction to let's see 13 and a half percent which is nothing crazy really and it's completely possible but again because of these prior months any real

Weakness will likely be bought up and if you're wondering why these lines changed it's because i just switched from the daily to the monthly chart and now say this yellow line is going to be a 50 month moving average

Versus if i go to the daily it's a 50 day a little bit how charts work on this platform so that's what we got to watch into next week like i was saying that monthly candle bulls want to get the market above its august lows

Which would be right here that 3270 level but bears would want to close near the september lows so they'd be happy if we stayed around right here but depending on how you look at it like if we move

Over to the nasdaq right now you can see we might be putting in a little short term double bottom here you can see this candle on the 21st it had a very low wick that retraced back up same thing happened on the 24th and

You can see their lows were right around the same area and when you see action like that you know the thing falling and then being bought up that probably means there's a little support right here so this

Might be the bottom forming and you can see this kind of rounding out here so will we move higher from here maybe or maybe we'll go sideways but when we're looking at the nasdaq it might be less likely that we're going to

Go and fall down to the 200-day moving average so again we need more data and more days to see how this plays out so putting it all together we get a mixed picture with odds favoring more bouncing

Around action this fits with the developing fiscal talks which saw some renewed life today with both mnuchin and pelosi announcing some renewed interest in pushing ahead people are skeptic about whether both

Sides can get a deal done before the election especially after rbg's passing but alex our lead researcher at macro ops called up one of his old dc buddies because alex used to be fbi and all this

Counter-terrorism stuff lived in dc it was a fun time but he's got buddies over there and one of them is a lobbyist so he had some good information about the talks by the way i'm on the last season of

Veep right now and that show is just so good even though i hate anything to do with politics in washington and it really turns me off this show is funny enough to overcome it especially jonah ryan right here

Watch that on hbo if you haven't already okay but here's what the dc guy said he said the passing of rbg changes nothing in fact it gives those working on the talks some welcome cover from the constant news attention which

Was hurting them too much spotlight they didn't have time to do any work but who's really doing any work in dc anyway there's actually a number of democrats with tight races coming up and they'll definitely lose their seats if they

Leave washington without getting a deal done so they're freaking out and they're willing to make big concessions to get that fiscal stimulus passed the trump administration is playing koi in public but they're actually pushing

For the stimulus too they want to deal closer to the range of the democrats at over 2 trillion dollars because it's definitely going to boost trump's re-election odds and there aren't any republicans that

Are going to try and challenge it other than you know complaining about the deficit because they're a republican so the odds are roughly 75 that they agree to broader terms of a package that's north of 1.5 trillion

Within the next few weeks there's a real threat of the major airlines running out of emergency funding by the end of this month and if that happens then you're going to have tens of thousands of workers that are going to be furloughed

As a result and that's one more reason why we're likely going to see a deal sooner rather than later these are all voters you can't let them lose their jobs

Not that they actually care about them losing jobs just their votes so that's the inside scoop and it definitely runs counter to what we're reading in the press but our dc friend has a pretty good

Record with these things and this more constructive fiscal take if this stuff does get passed well then that's going to affect the long dollar thesis and the short gold swing trades that we made in the

Macroops portfolio we released a note a few days ago talking about gold and i know a few of you were asking about that so we go over that real quick so there's two forces that shape price charts there's trending

Action and then reversion mean and that's all price action is so nothing ever moves in a straight line for long and that's because price becomes so extended from the average entry price of those who are early into

The trend who bought in early that they start to take profits and at the same time those who like to fade those extended moves who want a short they see that large gap between the

Price and the moving average that's all moving averages are right they're averages not magic that things get pulled back to but it just gives you an idea of where the buying happened so anyway those guys

Who see that gap they start to enter counter trends of a short and that drives bouts of mean reversion profit taking and shorting and you can see this on any trend any chart you look at you're

Gonna see this type of price action we actually go into depth about this in our price action master class which we actually go over with this strategy but anyway in a trend if there's still gas left in

It if it's going to be a longer term trend then price will retrace to that average level and investors will find enough value again to enter and then drive the next leg of the trend higher that's where you'll see this up

Down pattern with the general trend still going higher though now a popular moving average used by traders on shorter time frames is the 21 moving day average larger funds look at longer term

Averages because they're not day trading or swing trading so they're looking at the 200 day they don't like to buy too high above that 200 day or sell too far below it so different time frames looking at different

Averages this kind of drives the large swings and counter moves within larger trends so here is a 35-year price chart of gold and its percentage gap from the 200-day moving average which is shown right

Below here so over this period gold has hit trend extension levels of 25 or more from its 200-day moving average only six times including its most recent buy climax you

Can see all of them marked right here and we hit that again recently a few days ago so a 25 spread from its 200-day moving average is a rich level like we talked about when you're looking at that

You know it might be some time for some mean reversion so the last time it happened five other times 86 2006 0809 and 11 we had drawdowns and then we had a number of trading days until we hit

New highs again you can see there's a big range in how long it took to break to new highs again but it's an average correction of 26 which has taken an average of 648 trading days to regain new highs or if you exclude

The outlier in 2011 then the average is 21 down and 255 days back to new highs now based on that we put a short on the position a short term short though gold was 10

Down from its peak and if we see an average retrace of 25 then it should trade below 1700 in the future and at that point it'd be below its 200-day moving average and traders would see a bargain and then enter back

In so that would be a lot more downside from here but like we were saying with the fiscal talks if those pass then this whole trade might get blown up so the macroofs portfolio were currently

Short so that's the thing with these shorter term trades you really got to watch them and alex is playing the meaner version here but long term on gold he's very bullish so again what we were just talking about

This whole mean reversion thing it's short term and that's what mean reversion is most of the time i mean it depends on what time frame you look at it in but say within a larger trend like this then yeah any

Main reversion is a short-term play and our views on the dollar are still the same dollar going lower gold is going to go higher so to sum up markets right now the longer term risk reward greatly favors the upside because of under

Positioning and risk assets and we talked about that before right the big hedge funds and institutions they have not even put their money in the market yet they are very low on equity exposure so

There's lots and lots of cash on the sidelines that still got to come in and that's why even with action like this we're still long term bullish but with the short to intermediate term it's more muddied

We're likely to see more of all in chop and we're kind of on standby until we figure out what's happening with this fiscal stuff there's only a few trading days left in september and that's where the month and the

Quarter close so it's going to be a big tell on where supply and demand pressures are heading into october remember the broader you go out in time frame especially on the monthly or even quarterly the better signal you're

Getting we don't know what's gonna happen going into the end of the month but if i had to bet i'm gonna say we'll head lower but thankfully i don't need to predict where the market is going because we got our strategy right here

It's got its risk control in place where you're making great gains and all we got to do is sit back and execute don't really have to worry about which direction the market is going and that's the way it should be so if you're

Stressed out and trying to figure out all this stuff don't worry about it just take this training use the same strategy we're using it's way easier and more effective and it's not bs either it's a real

Professional strategy and that's why it's easier but check it out there's a link in this video and down below in the description and comments and speaking of the strategy one of the parts of the strategy is an

Active portfolio meaning we make more trades and i was getting a number of emails over the last month saying hey why are there no active trades going off because this is a systematic model right i'm not saying

Buy this by that it's just a model that runs so the people who are new to this strategy they're saying hey what's up with the active portfolio aren't there supposed to be more trades going on well here's the thing with this strategy

We're never going to force any trades and when you get a market like this like look at this action right here it's going straight up there's no chance for you to even enter any of the stocks because the way the active

Strategy works is that it waits for a dip in particular names and then jumps in but if the market is going straight up like this when's the dip gonna come and no it's not some buy the dip strategy but it's

Understanding certain price action within the context of larger momentum in a broader trend which actually goes back to exactly what we're talking about with mean reversion that's what it works

Off of so it takes advantage jumps in and then profits we just did that with zoom zoom had this dip we were able to get in with this active strategy then it shot

Higher and we took profits but you need that dip to get in in the first place at least for this type of strategy so again in any strategy you can't just be forcing trades you need to take what the market is giving you and that's where

The patience comes into play if you're out there forcing trades you're just going to lose money you need to stick to your system and execute it and yeah you might go through a stretch where you're not getting any trades but

That's how the market goes feast and famine most of the time all your profits come in a small period of time the rest of the time you know you're just trying to hold on and that's with

Most strategies so anyway i've been getting a lot of questions about that or at least i did until as you can see we've been getting a lot of active trades getting put on and again you want to learn more about

All this it's all on this training and now finally let's get some advice from one of the greatest traders to ever live way smarter than me way smarter than you way smarter than everybody let's see what the legendary gregoriba has to say

Okay you know they hit me at the mark by the way all i know is when i first walk in every mother's day father has a rolex on their hand and a son

And like look at it and that's all i could think about when i first started trading everybody's got more on their wrist than i got in my account i thought it was just like you know what i could beat

These guys and i said that 99 still don't get it when you win you start betting less bet more i mean there's one role

That you can make a hundred thousand dollars on let it right if you wrote three sixes in a row then you're right and the winner's right

Money gets you super chats i'm talking about the playmate isn't that what every guy's dream is right i think about trains just don't lose money when you lose money

It changes everything you can't keep go on losing money expect to live the same life somehow god or somehow some spiritual things just watch you ever you want to buy something expensive

Because you've made it you've made enough money to buy it you start losing every day you buy a house you can't make any money anymore you gotta expect vacation

But as soon as you say you're over the hump i don't know how do you deal with that how do you deal with it i didn't have to make money every day did you make money every day

A long time yes did you what happened you don't trade now you trade there you go greg reba let it ride don't lose money it's that simple that's all you got to do in the stock market this is such a classic interview i don't know

If you guys ever saw it but now you have but okay take the training and don't forget to subscribe to our channel i'll see you in the next video stay fowlb out there

Bye you

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