Smartphones are changing…

by birtanpublished on September 30, 2020

in an interview in 2015 apples marketing
director revealed what we call the grand
theory of Apple he said that the job of
the watch was to not need to pick up
your iPhone as often that the job at the
iPhone is said that you don't need to
use an iPad for as long and that the job
of the iPad is eventually to be so
capable they'll never need to use a
laptop each of these products is a
computer and the hope is that one day
the watch will be as capable as the Mac
is now the future is this movement
towards smaller more seamless and more
powerful technology just remember this
idea I'm gonna come back to it so you've
probably seen a headline like this how
the smartphone will die in five years or
how global smartphone sales are slumping
but I would propose a different
conclusion that in fact instead of all
of that the smartphone market is
evolving also massive shout out to surf
shark VPN for sponsoring this video you
only need to look at the sales charts to
see that pretty much every company has
falling mobile phone sales and there's a
few reasons for it people are planning
to hold on to their current mobile phone
for longer than they used to
you've got that pricing which is going
up and up and we've just reached that
kind of psychological barrier of $1000
for a phone which is making some people
reevaluate and the third thing is
iPhones people who use iPhones generally
upgrade to iPhones but because Apple is
slow to design in new phone designs and
because iPhones from five years ago are
still getting the latest updates people
are holding on to their iPhones now for
over three years as opposed to just two
years on average before now here's the
problem with this if smartphone sales
continue to go down then a lot of these
smartphone makers won't be able to
remain profitable and so they're gonna
have to leave the market the number of
companies producing smartphones then
goes down and you'll just get much less
of that crazy exciting innovation that
we're seeing now a lot of people are
saying that it's all about to become
very stale and very static now I wanted
to start by not exactly debunking this
but kind of reframing it the future is
not as grim as this picture is painting
it out to be and in fact is something to
get really excited about here is a graph
from 2018 that actually breaks down
smartphone sales by segments it shows
that actually whilst the sales of cheap
phones were down by 10% and mid-range
phones pretty much
changed the sales of high-end $400 plus
phones fyssas wholesale pricing by the
way had rocketed up 18 percent and so
whilst it was easy to just take the
total figure of minus three percent and
conclude that the market was declining
all this is really saying is that
consumers are shifting from buying
cheaper phones to buying more expensive
phones and so it's no surprise that
they're keeping them for longer the
usable lifespan of a flagship phone is
going to be at least a year longer than
your standard cheap throwaway phone
you'll get updates for a longer period
of time and performance that can keep up
with applications years past their
release so the point is yes phone sales
are slowing down but a it's not as
dramatic as a lot of people are making
it out to be and be something bigger is
happening the phone market is evolving
right in front of us so let's take a
quick look at what's next what comes
after the glass break so I've got six
predictions about the future of phones
first up subscriptions will start to
become crucial there's something that
slowly crept into every part of our
lives in the last 10 years
whether it's Spotify for music or
Netflix for TV and it is just starting
to happen with mobile phones you might
have heard of the iPhone upgrade program
you pay a monthly fee and Apple
basically makes sure that you're always
on the latest iPhone and you're always
covered by Apple care now we already
know that iPhone users are pretty loyal
they'll generally buy an iPhone and then
keep buying iPhones but this is the
ultimate lock-in in this one move Apple
has made it so easy for its loyal
customers to just pay a fee and never
worry about their phone again
they're going to worry about upgrading
their phone they don't need to worry
about transferring things between iOS
and Android they don't need to worry
ever again about breaking it they're
completely covered and that is how Apple
is planning to sustain profits even when
sales of these glass blocks globally are
falling it'll mean that whilst the
company is busy developing the true
successor to the iPhone the thing that's
really going to replace it they don't
need to worry too much about continually
making really interesting really
standout devices because their loyal
customers are going to automatically be
upgraded to whatever they produce ok now
you're probably tired of hearing all
about foldable devices and 5g but they
are completely central to this whole
thing remember how we talked about
Apple's grand theory the takeaway there
was that
smaller more seamless and more powerful
technology will succeed
well 5g takes us forward in that third
element it makes your phone more
powerful each new G whether it was 3G 4G
now it's 5g has created a new baseline
for what is possible every time we've
seen this kind of leap in cellular data
it's come with completely new
applications that were not possible with
the previous gen 3G allowed for video
calling and freely using the internet on
your mobile and 4G let people stream HD
TV shows and play games online now that
we've got 5g that opens up doors to
things like virtual reality and
augmented reality in a way that 4G
wouldn't have been able to deliver my
third prediction is the idea of a
flexible form factor so you've already
seen these foldable phones and this is
addressing the other side to apples
grand theory a foldable phone is already
potentially smaller and also potentially
more seamless and don't forget foldable
is the first step into flexible and I
really think that flexible is where
these devices will start to the comments
so woven into our lives that you'll
forget they're actually there this leads
me on to wearables
and we need to make a bit of a
distinction here the term wearables is
often associated with these kind of
gimmicky sports bands that can sort of
detect your heart rate but what I'm
talking about here is devices that carry
more functionality than your smartphone
but in a way that's even more seamless
it could be something that wraps around
your wrist but equally it could be
something that's part of your clothing
or even something that's potentially
implanted into you wearables are what is
going to bring us closer to augmented
reality and virtual reality so you
probably heard of Mark Zuckerberg the
CEO of Facebook even he has said that
the future of Facebook is wearable
Facebook is investing heavily in AR and
VR and whilst right now these
technologies feel a little bit
cumbersome and require bulky bits of kit
they are leading into seamlessness and I
know I keep banging on about this word
but it's the direction we are headed in
we are moving towards a world with
uninterrupted technology truly a virtual
reality in fact I think this movement is
already starting to take place if you
take a look at this graph over here
which shows SmartWatch sales over time
you can see a very clear trend
smartwatches have picked up almost
exponentially and in fact at the start
of 2019
the same period where Samsung barely
broke even in other area
the company reported a growth of 127
percent in watt sales this is that grunt
theory of Apple in action the fifth
thing is that artificial intelligence is
crucial for all of this it is what is
going to allow devices that are this big
to be able to replicate the
functionality of devices that are this
big this is a simplified example but
let's say right now I need my macbook to
edit videos and that's probably going to
remain the case for the next ten years
or so but you might know that using
Google photos your smartphone is already
capable of using machine learning to
edit simple videos for you using its
understanding of faces places and
objects with that in mind then it's not
unreasonable to assume that in a
decade's time Google will be intelligent
enough to be able to edit my videos for
me in a way that would be a lot better
than I could do all this computing power
that power that makes people feel the
need to buy massive desktop PCs is all
going to start to be embedded in the
cloud and we'll just be borrowing it
every time we issue a command and that
leads me on to commands let's take an
example how do you usually interact with
your smartphone you'll probably say
touch but touch is much slower and less
intuitive than voice and so I don't
think it'll be long before voice
commands will start to play a larger
role and think about it if your commands
start to only need to come from your
mouth instead of your fingers as well
and the fact that the power of your ever
improving AI assistant is available on
everything from your wrist band to your
necklace why would you want to carry
around a bulky phone anymore and for
those of you who are curious I'd say the
next step after voice control would be
something along the lines of linking
directly to your brain but that's a long
way off and we'll save something for
another video anyways to bring this all
together the small phone as you know it
is not just gonna suddenly fan or snap
out of existence the way I see it going
is wearables and small foldable display
devices are going to become so capable
that people will start reaching for
their phones less it'll be this slow
process where over a period of time the
demand will fall until eventually the
old form factor will be phased out and
to be clear these new-age devices
they're still technically going to be
phones people are still gonna want to
communicate with one another but it's
just that they're not gonna look
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consider subscribing to the mr. who's
the boss channel I've got a whole
playlist of smartphone news videos like
this so I'll leave those linked from
here my name is Erin this is mr. he's
the boss and I'll catch you in the next
one

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