New Crypto bull market? | BTC to $13.9k could come faster than you’d think…

by birtanpublished on August 4, 2020

Hey what's going on everybody it's saturday 7 30 pm august 1st and i'm going to do a quick evening bitcoin and altcoin analysis lots going on i'm going to look at some price predictions potentially in the near term

For bitcoin and for ethereum we'll also check out some other alt coins maybe some d5 coins by the end of the video so stay tuned hit the thumbs up and hit subscribe if you like our

Content right so let's get to it okay um on the five minute chart you know what i'm seeing really right now is a trading range okay if we define that

Trading range really all we've done for the past i want to say um pretty much the entire day right is we've done something like this okay so let's open up where's the

Parallel channel right there there it is okay let me turn off all these alerts i have like 50 different alerts for all these different darn charts so this is the trading range that we're in all right i have not seen a

Clear breakout or breakdown above or below this range right so all we can really assume right now is we can take trades that are long from down here to up here shorts from up here

To down here would i short this definitely not um i have not shorted the market since i got out of my short position since back here since back here around 23rd of july i've been longing

The market every pullback i buy longs and i take profits higher up i've been doing this the entire time you're probably wondering well why not just long once and just hold it all the way up

First of all i have no no way of knowing where the market is going i can only assume that the resistance levels that i had above um would potentially either get broken or they would hold and so i take profits

Based on key sr levels so right now the way i'm looking at the market is you know being in a long position i'm thinking that this triangle target that you see right

Now comes from something like this okay so let's go to the hourly actually um actually maybe it's this one right here okay so basically what we had is this big triangle that we were you

Know printing an a b c d and e triangle okay and if you were in the advantage side or paid side of the community you were able to get way the heck down here at the bottom

In terms of our lungs or at this e marker and you took this long all the way up to about eleven thousand four hundred eleven thousand seven hundred dollars my final target for this

Uh right now the current trend is twelve thousand anything beyond that i will have to reassess when the market kind of shows me what exactly he's trying to do

But i can only think as far as 12 000 for now for the near-term targets i'll tell you why right so like it says uh there's a triangle target so all we do really to measure this triangle is we go from

The widest part from that high to this low right here and we put this from the breakout point right around this area and you can see we're right there around twelve thousand one hundred dollars

Twelve thousand one fifty i listed twelve thousand seventy five so technically let me actually bring this up right around that area so that's around the area where um i'm

Thinking that btc can still head to and not be completely overextended especially because we have this triangle target okay now if we're starting to look at say the rsi

On four hour it's definitely extended right what we're really coming into is a big sort of bearish divergence you can see um let me show you all real quick you can see a clear

You know divergence right there lower highs right and then a clear higher high rate there okay so it's abundantly clear that we're potentially you know in this big divergent

Form of um rsi right here to price however okay what's really happening on the daily is you know after this bit of consolidation that we had we've really pushed up quite nicely all right and so far you know the candle

Spread is not really telling me that we're slowing down anytime soon nor is the volume you can see bigger candle spreads going up and then volume going up this is

Technically what you want to see in a bullish trend and to be honest as much as i like to pay attention to rsi when price is going parabolic like this it's

Very hard to bet against price or rather to short it i would agree that this is the area up here 11 8 twelve thousand dollars ish that's the area to start taking profit

This is not the place where you start opening lungs okay because longs get destroyed at the top of trends like this especially when you have a big bearish divergence all right so just something to be

Careful about up here um even the rsi and the obv right here you know both ticking high especially the rsi obv is kind of showing us healthy signs so it's nothing

You know in terms of bad signs and obv but the rsi definitely definitely overbought up here we're right there around 83 points or so obviously we have more room to go up in the upside

In terms of rsi but this is really the area where you're getting into the overbought territory and you want to start at least taking profit or trimming down that's the best way if you want to be a

Longer sustainable consistently profitable trader unfortunately you have to sacrifice you know some of those potential up moves uh for the sake of knowing that

As per technicals you might be a bit overbought you might be a bit over extended there might be other indicators like the td sequential that are even telling you that hey this is super you know overextended overbought to the

Upside because td 9 right here remember tv sequential helps you measure by side exhaustion or cell side exhaustion so when you get to that nine when you get to that 13

That's effectively telling you that hey maybe a you know reversal or a pullback might be near okay when it comes to um let me see here i think was it maybe a day or two ago

We were breaking out of somewhere over here no i think it was like somewhere down here actually a 330s area where i was telling people that okay well we've broken out of these local trend lines

Right here over here this was a successful retest of this previous high so this was a potential area where i let advantage members know this is a pretty solid long that you

Could take from here until 355 or almost still 400 well technically it's 480 because if you look over here right on the weekly chart if you're closing above 355 on the weekly

And again weekly closes tomorrow crazier things have happened in 24 hours guys so don't think that ethereum cannot drop back under 355 by tomorrow around this time because that's a whole 24 hour cycle

Till tomorrow's daily closes or tomorrow's weekly rather um so 355 is a big marker for me on eth you could see across you know june 2017 august 2017 october 2017 and then over here in june 2019

And now we're coming up to it in july 2020 very key sr level this marker so it makes sense that even if we push up here maybe tomorrow or going into next week

We might have that pullback back to 355 maybe a little bit lower and then we might make our way back up to 480 it's also possible that we don't have that retrace and we just go straight up

To 480 unfortunately in situations like this if you have somewhat of a overextended market your stops need to be a little bit deeper if you

Really want to get into lungs because here's the thing you already know that you are creating bearish divergences on multiple time frames on multiple assets so it might behoove

You to be more careful in your long position structure whether it's maybe using tighter stops or smaller positions and then wider stops

However you want to do that but you have to manage your risk properly in situations like this because you might effectively be buying the local top by the time euphoria and all this

Fomo and excitement hits you guys that's really the the whole idea of you know the psychological trap of a market it gets you so excited to the point where you feel like you've missed out on

So much you don't want to miss out anymore and you jump in just like most people and unfortunately that just happens to be the top um that's just how the psychology of the

Market works and so i'm telling you guys that if you're currently in long positions okay you want to start trimming down up here okay you do not want to be heavily exposed to long positions or

Be adding up here this is the time to start being careful start taking profit if you're looking for shorts personally i think it's a bit dangerous in my opinion but

You know if you really want to take like swing shorts or something well you have it you know you have an opportunity to short here with a stop above 12 000 or something

But if we're looking at trading light you know here's an interesting thing so i've been watching trading light you know for the last even like several days or several you know weeks now

Um and going back into july right end of july right here when we really started to have uh that push towards like breaking 11 300 or so or even back here when we were breaking through these walls that were

Stacked up these are all cell walls on this is bitfinex by the way bitfenix is the exchange where i've seen a lot of selling coming from so i've been paying attention to the cell walls

On finnex more than i have most other exchanges the buy walls have actually been coming more so on bitmex and uh sometimes coinbase binance here and there as well but

Finnex right here is the one exchange as you can see has had a lot of cell walls so i've been paying attention just you know seeing what exactly is happening and it seems like these walls

Are not spoofs meaning they're not fake they don't just get pulled as soon as price starts to approach it in fact what really happens is price is actually digging through these walls

Meaning buyers are stepping up and chewing through each one of these cell orders all the way up so how does that help us now well we're currently in a position where we have

Cell walls stacked all the way to about twelve thousand dollars the heaviest being near term right there around eleven thousand nine hundred um i would say that there's a higher probability that we keep

Grinding and pushing through these cell walls on the way up versus you know just breaking down straight away because it ain't the cell walls that are going to you know indicate that we're going to

Break down from here because clearly we've been chewing through them as you can see right here right across the board so this to me is indicating that it looks like

Sellers are selling and does that mean that sellers are selling that this is the top or are they just selling to take profit on the market i think at present moment it's a little bit of both i can't definitively say

That sellers are selling because this is a top well if it was a top more than likely you know the big whales are very good at knowing where the top is and then price

Swiftly starts reversing from that area but if we've been grinding through these cell walls and we keep pushing up higher and higher well is it really the top top right the euphoria in the market is good

Okay that's also indicating to me that okay people are getting excited people are longing they feel invincible they keep calling for higher prices but has it gotten to the point where market is putting people in disbelief

And even those that are long you know from a lower price um are feeling really really excited or professional traders i don't think so at least not yet that's not what i'm sensing from the market

Currently what i'm sensing for the market is there might be euphoria or that clear fomo if we start ripping through twelve thousand three hundred twelve thousand five hundred maybe even

Thirteen thousand that's where i would figure okay this is where the fomo is really going to set in and that might be the top but again structurally looking right

Here whether it's you know the over extension on the rsi the bearish divergence the triangle target right here and even you know a little bit of the euphoria that's

Coming in um there are reasons to say that this could effectively be the the local top and so i want you all to be careful in thinking okay well if you are in lungs it's okay

To start taking profit um this was the other marker that i had drawn this comes back from august and way the heck back here in july 2019 it's a weird looking marker if you look

At it but if you dig in closely like into the four hour or the one hour it actually make it made a lot of sense and that's why i picked this marker so if you look right here right in this

Area right here that was resistance this was resistance right here before we broke down this was resistance right here got rejected but we pushed up deviated right there and then

Sold off right so that marker right now stretches to exactly where we are currently right this 11 800 11 900 area so this is another reason why you can say you have

Added confluence whether it's the td sequential bearish divergence you know maybe even these cell walls however you want to look at it there are many reasons to start taking profit and very few reasons why you need to

Open lungs here but doesn't mean you don't have to open lungs doesn't mean you don't have to have exposure hey i told you i've been long you know or longing since back here right since

We broke up past nine four nine five but i've been taking profits on the way up reopening positions re-adding to my lungs closing out profit and then reopening positions

Why because i want to be careful in the market i like realizing profit more than i like looking at numbers in my account showing me that i'm up

You know x amount of money see i think the thing about trading that most people don't understand is that unless profit is realized and i mean really realized into your life meaning

You were able to pay for bills you were able to buy a new car go on vacation uh start a new business uh make your life better in some way that profit doesn't mean anything as as long as it's just unrealized

Profits and digits that are just ticking in your account so this is why i say taking profits on the way up is okay it doesn't matter if you do miss

Out on that extra you know couple percent run even if it's a thousand dollar run up who cares right you you'll you'll still be spot long anyway because if you think

About it if you have btc exposure and you're not in a long derivative or futures position well you still have bitcoin exposure so as long as the market keeps going up you're still making money

You may not be making as much money as if you know you were along with a 10x leverage or something but money is money and again realized profits are the only kind of profits that matter

Until then it's just virtual numbers in your account guys all right so make sure you all realize profits um well with eth like i was saying earlier again a big psychological target

Is 400 if we actually turn on um the pivots right here on the daily as you can see we're hitting the r1 pretty dead-on r2 is right there you know around 430 or so

So if you want to take that risk well the daily pivot is way the heck down here around 306 okay so if you're trading based on the daily time frame your stop should be below this pivot all

Right if you're digging into the smaller time frames okay the current daily pivot meaning uh for today's daily candle this is the actual pivot

So it's possible that we come back to test this pivot as uh support which is around 375 dollars and 36 cents or so so we could test that as support and we could do something like this where

Come down and then maybe by tomorrow we start reaching up towards r1 which is around 406 and r2 which is around 425 okay let me see here let's see if there's anything else to

Talk about um i haven't seen anything special in the news uh let me see we've been talking about you know in the crypto industry yes uh banks may now be able to custody your bitcoin or custody or crypto

But i think most people in the crypto space have realized you know we don't really trust banks that much anymore i feel like you know banks nowadays are uh in my opinion

Becoming the blockbuster of you know 2005 or 2006 right it's it's coming to a point where people are realizing either they don't need banks or they want to be their own central bank or sovereign bank with the

Help of bitcoin or they want a different form of digital money point is i think the financial system is definitely due for overhaul and i think bitcoin really helps

Accelerate that process obviously digital money that's even created by governments does that too but i think people in the bitcoin and crypto space definitely want that to happen and i don't think we

Are in a time uh nor in a country um especially if you guys are from america that bitcoin would just be outright banned or government would restrict your purchase or usage of it

So i think bitcoin in times like this is the best asset to be owning because what we've effectively seen is the heavy amount of money printing we know that the dollar has been

Getting weaker and weaker however i'm actually not such a big fan of the argument that the dollar is going to um i don't know not die but like it's it's

Uh losing its reserve currency status and dollar i mean not us dollar um i don't think we're at that point you see the united states this is as per swipe international bank research

They they said that 795 of global trade is actually done in the us dollar the world demands dollars a lot of the world has you know us debt a lot of the world has

Us equities um a lot of the world has us treasury bonds and they trade in us dollar so they would not want the american dollar to start falling they would not

Want the american economy to start breaking apart due to the dollar reserve losing its status there are many reasons why in some ways people people's best interest would be in a fairly healthy dollar and

That doesn't mean a dollar at 100 or 110 it could very well be that the dollar is happily uh traded right here between 93 and 95 that might be the sweet spot for both america and the world

And my argument is that the dollar is trading at these levels well it's great for things like crypto things like commodities such as gold and silver which have been doing extremely well

But remember that i don't think the dollar is just going to start getting torched on the way down especially because it's been so darn oversold over the last um let's

Check out the uh rsi right here you can see it's so oversold on the daily basis you can see the macd has completely gone down but now it's looking like it wants to

Start curling back a little bit um you know so i would say this is a temporary bottom for the dollar which would imply maybe a temporary top for gold and things like bitcoin and silver so

The correlation is that you know the dollar starts pushing up i think equities commodities and even bitcoin start pulling back a little bit and that might give us that perfect

Retrace of maybe going back to eleven thousand you know maybe a little bit lower around ten six or ten eight okay because that would be the perfect ideal situation for us to

Um look at this as a healthy market where we say all right it looks like we broke out we went parabolic we had a nice you know how much of a retrace would that be from this key high to this kilo you know

Good or rather this area right here that'd be a good 10 retracement even if we went a little bit lower back inside this in trading range which is around actually the high of this trading range

Which is around uh 10 100 or so um that'd be around a 14 percent retrace which is pretty healthy in in bitcoin um bull markets or bull trends see the thing is if you want a longer

Lasting bull market guys you want good healthy retracements okay you don't just want a straight up parabolic move because those cycles end a lot faster and to be honest

The sealing of those cycles is much more capped than if you were to enter a long sort of you know big consolidation type of movement like here we had a three month

Consolidation right here broke out consolidated for a month pushed up consolidated for another month pushed up so you want you know multiple uh movements like this on the way up

Where you consolidate move sideways pull back maybe 10 15 20 percent um and then start pushing back up so this is why i'm looking at the market as a healthy area to start trimming down your long

Position all right um if we're looking at the daily volume like i said pretty healthy volume so far um let's check out the daily pivots on bitcoin whoa this is we don't need that many pivots let's

Turn these off let's look at the current daily pivots okay so the current daily uh pivot rather you know for the month technically is the r1 right here which

Is around 12 200 so you know it makes sense that maybe we push up to 12 000 maybe we wick up into 122 and then start rolling back down

Okay these are all things that you want to consider if you are in a position right now you need to start making a game plan for yourself where you're going to place your stops where you're going to start taking

Profit you know how are you going to add on to your position de-risk your your current portfolio all these things are what's going to make you a um from

From going from an average trader or an average person who buys bitcoin sometimes or is trying to make money in the market to someone who can be consistently profitable consistently

Um you know taking money from the market rather than giving money to the market let me see what's going on with link here um here's actually the big thing with link that i've been paying attention to

Okay so this is kind of how i've been looking at link so let's turn this well we can leave that on actually that's gonna leave the fibs on so we had a nice top that was put in around nine dollars or so

Right so let's just use approximations nine dollars now we came down to about six dollars and fifty cents so that was a good retracement right and this is what i mean when things like link even when they go

Parabolic here's um the retracement that it had it had a 26 retracement and now it's starting to push back up right so if bitcoin has you know 10

20 retracement and then it starts to push back up well it has now a higher ceiling to the upside higher ceiling meaning this if we just simply do a fib extension from this key

High the nine dollars to the 650 low our food extension should now start taking us to about 10 dollars and 38 cents which is a 1618 fit if you're looking at the 20 extension

From high to low to the 20 right here 11 and 30 cents i mean that's pretty darn good you know from where we are right now that's a pretty big upside but again altcoins

Um you want to be careful because when bitcoin dumps man altcoins dump even harder they dump twice as hard actually so you want to be careful in these situations okay not effectively

You know when bitcoin starts pushing back up um or it's starting to look weak at the top maybe don't be heavy into alt points maybe start trimming down your positions or if you're into altcoins for say

The next few months um the next few quarters even right i would probably pick up link i would probably pick up ethereum i'd pick up things um you know in the d5 space that are

Looking good and i would hold on to those as spot positions not as futures positions or leveraged positions but but as spot positions because then you

Have um less risk because you're not heavily tied into a position you don't have to pay funding you still make money you just may not make as much money uh

Say if you were you know leveraged long so with link you know keep these targets in mind unfortunately your stop will probably have to be right around this three two fib which is below this low or way

The heck down here below this low around 650 but you know your upside is 1618 fib right here 1040 or so and then 1130 um let me see here there's also a video

I actually just made uh you can click on it on your top right of the screen um i talk about some d5 coins that i'm paying attention to one coin that has a thousand percent plus

Potential uh though the video is on the top right so you can click on that and also be at the end of this video so make sure y'all go check that out it's about

D5 coins i'm paying attention to and um one or two positions that i'm buying for the next you know several months as a potential spot position that can yield uh almost a thousand plus

Percent again not financial advice it's just exactly you know what i'm doing in the market so if you're interested in watching or listening um you know watch that video uh let's see

Here you know there's this big channel that i've been watching too um if you look at this let me see here let's do this let's do this

Okay let's put this on the eight hour as well you know i think once you have all these charts you want to start being organized you know and i feel like that's one thing i'm working on

Is how to stay as organized as possible with so many different charts it's very hard on trading view that's for sure um so a few days back i think we were in here right 28th or 29th of july and i was

Talking about to our members i think i even did a free video on this on youtube that we were creating the same sort of abcde triangle right here that we were creating right here so if

You watch that video you were effectively able to get into a long position in bitcoin right around like eleven thousand maybe you know ten thousand eight fifty ten thousand nine hundred

And so obviously that's a thousand dollar move that you've caught so far if you actually paid attention and watch my videos now what comes out of that well the triangle move right here if we do a

Measured move like i said on the triangle takes up here uh takes us up here to around 12 000 ish dollars over here this triangle definitely took us to about ten thousand one hundred ten thousand

Two hundred dollars uh price actually went to about a ten thousand forty five high so not too bad pretty darn close but there's another way you can do something like this where you go to the

Top of the triangle right there and you do a retrace or rather a extension and you see right there price ended up just under the 1618 fit so pretty good right if you do the same thing right

Here okay you'll see the amazement of that fib extension structure playing out okay so let's do the low see look where we are we're just right under that 1618 fib

Guys so you know if you're going off fractals if you believe in these triangles that have been playing themselves out in the same manner well this is a good area to start

Taking profit okay well that's it folks i hope you all enjoy the content again i am still long um i am in no way calling the top uh in this market just yet um you know i think there's a lot of

Bullish momentum still left but i also do wish for marcus to give me healthy pullbacks uh so buyers like myself and like you can buy when there's a healthy retrace in the market

Create a floor for support and then we can aim for higher prices but one thing when things go parabolic i think the wrong kind of mentality the wrong kind of people step into the market these are the

Fomo chasers the euphoria chasers and these people are really not healthy when it comes to bullish trends in the market because whenever you see people piling into positions like that

Well you're pretty darn close to a top you know so you should effectively wish for a market to have a pullback so buyers like you and i can step into the market create a floor

For support and then start aiming for higher prices whether it be 12 500 or 13 000 you know one of my big um uh sort of picks is that if we have today's or not today's but this week's candle

Right here close above this key marker as you can see 11 400 where we are right now well i guess we're 400 above that but if we close this weekly above this marker is what i'm trying to

Say well then our ceiling opens up over here okay our ceiling is right there guys right because that's the last time we wicked into you know huge supply see if we're not getting rejected right

Here on a weekly basis well i can only sense that we're probably going to push up higher now does that mean that we can't on the next weekly candle retrace down um

In the middle of the week and then push back up by the end of the week or even the following week after i mean we could definitely do that but the point is i think if you put in such a huge candle

Above a key sr level like the 11 400 marker well i think the chances are pretty high that you might be actually aiming for this key supply block right here around 13

900 so this is kind of my big prediction i'm really really anxiously waiting for tomorrow's weekly handout to close because boy the higher it closes the more conviction i have

That more than likely we're going higher and all pullbacks i'm probably gonna long to be honest unless i just see an aggressive you know bearish candle like this well i mean i can't really you know do

Anything about that all i can do is place my stops properly but i'm going to buy the pullbacks whenever that happens if we close this candle above 11 4 or the higher we close you

Know the better i feel about longing all right so all this stuff is going to be available in the advantage side um we have tons of other analysts in our community um tons of information here bitcoin

Trading channels altcoin trading channels where we buy spot positions and altcoins leverage positions in uh altcoins and then d5 coins that we're also picking up so tons of analysis tons of information

And of course an equity side so if you're trading the us stock market you have tons of tips and tricks that facil uh who's our equities analyst and myself share

With our community members exactly what we're picking up this week okay so that's it folks hope you all enjoyed hit the thumbs up hit subscribe if you do like our videos and give me a shout out on

On twitter if you do like our analysis and leave me a comment of your thoughts until then join the advantage membership if you want this kind of in-depth analysis uh live analysis twice a day

Or trade setups you know throughout the day or the week cheers and have a great rest of your weekend

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