by birtanpublished on August 23, 2020

all right gentlemen I got your what's is coming in July 17 2020 and Netflix stock has crashed on earnings I'm being a little bit dramatic they fell just within expectations for the options or what they were pricing in $45 but the

Initial reaction was big it was kind of what we were expecting with a big move but not quite we will go over why and what happened with Netflix but it affected the market after hours it affected some stocks today was

Relatively nothing it felt like nothing was happening but in the grand scheme of things this was a very very normal earnings mode so earnings season is on ladies and gentlemen so we have a lot to go over tomorrow is going to be exciting

Because of Netflix and what it could affect it's going to give us a lot of information to move forward with this earnings so I hope you guys are ready I hope you are there in the morning tomorrow there is going to be some

Continuation plays I mean I don't want to hype it up too much it is bring your friend Nicole today so hopefully you do bigger a friend and god bless you but let us not delay you guys know what you need to do drop your thumbs about the

Video make sure you're subscribed and if you don't know we are loud Monday to Friday 30 minutes before open it's at first look at the description and it is pinned in the comments we better see you there in the morning it's free 99 it

Costs you nothing to join slash stock market you could post the place see the plays and watch the watchlist come to life and Fridays get crazy so if everything is boring and you just want to smile I don't know maybe

Things are bad maybe we just want to smile I you will smile tomorrow I promise you that okay now I have a lot of pressure so I don't know do what you want but do not forget the most important thing you need to do post or

Watch this below that I sorted looking at got any place comments remixes anything post them below in source that info shut the cold baby but right off the bat like we said earnings mode is back on this whole move today was

Natural the virus can surprise throughout the day there was a rumor Ivan put it out on the stream alerts because it was the only thing that really moved the market and it made sense because of the

Scope it's interesting where it came from but a rumor started circulating that Texas might go back to closing and now last place that people were expecting was Texas to close back down so maybe Florida or New York but that

Caused some reaction then there was clarification that they said they're not going to read closed so we might see some of those announcements and it showed us that okay the market will react to some of this stuff but overall

You're gonna need earnings to even drive home a move and you even see there was a reaction after hours this is what we talked about how after some of these companies starts to report it gives us a lot of info and we even got some from

Netflix they killed it this quarter but they guided down even beyond expectations for q3 so a lot of analysts have ideas people are factoring in recovery this and that but now the real results and then now we're hearing stuff

From the company are we gonna get another wave of cuts and guidance slashes when that was what happened last time and we expected it so how will analysts in the markets respond so that brings us to the next key here tomorrow

Is going to be important for this reason you know the key will be interpreting the response of all of the earnings that we saw mainly Netflix considering its run and we've seen with the NASDAQ stocks and again they have been a virus

Winner in the midst of all this you know they're up like 60% on the year so we want to see how they respond what the premiums tell us again we'll even talk about one of the Amazon plays that we made and that will even highlight that

But key tomorrow is seeing how the market takes it how do they respond how do we set up into the next set of earnings and the bigger companies and what does this change expectation wise watch upgrades and downgrades I can't

Say this enough this will be important throughout the earnings season it's not only just the move the companies make but then the following reaction of Wall Street in the investment community analysts all that so continuations are

Very very key so don't forget that but I want to look to set up for those and watch the other earnings tomorrow and that will be important and then finally as far as everything else for today even coming into next week I think tomorrow

Has the potential to be crazy or at the very least to see one of the days where the market doesn't really do anything but individual names can move or premium might go wild out you'd be surprised even if stocks don't do anything premium

Can change simply because of the Netflix report and then again the response to Netflix as well but moving forward even stuff that came up today again that virus stuff will have an effect it will be important it will come up a few times

But now at the same time politics is back this whole stimulus issue we heard some of this after hours a trump went live but these issues are coming back the unemployment bonuses are going to expire and it seems like they're

Actually gonna fight this time so remember last time we were in the midst of this we didn't know much now we're saying we're gonna have a vaccine by the end of the year people feel a lot more comfortable you want to fight about

Masks and no mass okay it's a different situation so now I think politically I don't even think this is you could kind of even tell so far there's gonna be a little bit of a scuffle here cuz now Trump wants a payroll tax he's pretty

Much saying he's not gonna advocate or support a bill or for more stimulus without a payroll tax and then they want it it's very very surreal honestly because it's so one side wants you to stay home one side wants you to go to

Work and it's it's wild that this is what they're gonna fight about so I don't know where ever you stand I'm not making a stance on it but the idea is this is literally what they're discussing they want to do instead of an

Employment bonus or an unemployment bonus that extra six hundred bucks that's gonna expire for Trump to get on board he wants them to switch that to a back to work bonus and then they want to change some of the income restrictions

For who qualifies whether it's 40,000 or 70,000 and then they ultimately want that payroll tax so that stuff is gonna have an effect and I'm bringing this up because this will either take an effect prior to earnings or after some of the

Big ones because we heard some of this stuff last week again end of the month is when this stuff kind of is going to kick off so I wouldn't be surprised to see this come up in a week or two but that is gonna fall in line around some

Of the bigger earnings or the continuations following some of the bigger companies so I hope you guys are ready for that that will be excited even before we get into anything the final point is Netflix and we talked about

This a lot we're going to look at this fair play there earnings they beat I believe they missed on EPS but beat on revenue and this highlighted something big the two parts were one they guided down for q3 by 50%

So Wall Street like the numbers they killed the expectations they have been growing Cova did benefit them in very very weird ways one is the amount of subscribers but now the problem is for q3 they're saying well as people recover

Dacovian Netflix is expecting that paid additions will drop so all everybody long wall street was expecting five million new users next quarter and they guided down 50% now Netflix has sandbagged before so they could just cut

It earlier but we need to start to see I don't know if Wall Street was expecting to sandbag quarters in a row because some people consider everybody's guidance cut you know after a certain point it didn't negatively effect some

Of these companies so that is the first part but now I also have another thesis for you this is what happens when the markets get a little interesting but one big aspect of Netflix's earnings this quarter even last quarter they have

Positive cash flow they're not usually they were never running positive cash flow so now a lot of these companies are have positive cash flow because they can't spend money so Netflix literally was not able to record as many movies

And blow billions of dollars so think about that and kind of even think about some of the move we've had up with a lot of these stocks although some of these companies have taken huge hits some of them have saved a ton of money by simply

Not being able to spend just like the average citizen or some of you guys so that is the important part again how analysts take this is going to be important this is gonna be a main play tomorrow so we'll talk about that we

Have a lot of things too but that is pretty much it so let us get into the plays so right off the bat the first play that I made today while I added to it it was the Amazon and I did feel weird about it but this is what I'm

Talking about with Netflix earnings everything we will see tomorrow if it was really a good move because now the last two days if you guys have been watching these Amazon puts we've grabbed a few different sets so where does it

Start we got this August 1 760 I spent so I'm down like 50% it dropped and here it is so you can see the player has a 2100 put stay on a5 or 430 this is the one that I grabbed today I grabbed it at 280 but you can see even

With the spreads and everything it's a little far out these are next week so I did end up you know I spent 280 here another 200 here I spent like 4 or 500 bucks on weekly so a little bit risky again it's next week but it's a little

Closer to the money but still far out the money but it doesn't really give us enough time but hopefully that August will but this is what I'm saying now the last 2 or 3 days we saw these puts drop in value and again this is when we got

Them when Netflix started to drop remember these puts went crazy we got these out of dollar 78 it went up to like five six bucks dropped came right back up to like 400 bucks they were doing well and then last few days even

As Amazon dropped they lost value so this is why I said I want one because I'm like well even though we were wrong on it it's starting to turn in my favor so I grabbed this 25 10 won I liked it I want to see what's gonna happen with it

But now the fact that Netflix did bad if people's expectations get a little bit more worried the fact that Netflix missed q3 estimates and then we're gonna see how analysts respond to that that might change people's demand for Amazon

Puts tomorrow so I'm hoping that's gonna be a good decision but that was the first play that I made the next play we have these we grab these today we got Netflix puts we'll go over those specific plays but they're gonna be up

Tomorrow again I don't want to get too excited but I'm gonna look for the continuation so after stock reports it makes some move again after all of the data and as it digests it will continue on from the earnings move so not only do

The stocks move big on the earnings report but usually in the coming weeks or so or really that immediate week or two sometimes there's a delay but if there's a big move tomorrow I'm gonna look for the continuation if it doesn't

Make a big move tomorrow so if it kind of just stays in the range that it opens at then I'm gonna look to play it on Monday so if it moves big at open I'm going to be playing this tomorrow either on a daily or I'm gonna set up for one

With next week usually the ones next week out you could get really good deals on so I'm gonna be looking at next week calls or even August they're not necessarily calls but put gonna play the direction based on the

First hour and let it continue from there so if this ultimately is a negative report for Netflix you see it drops the market takes it goes up a little bit but then it drops another 30 $40 tomorrow and then or even even

Bigger and then people are cowards they don't like it more downgrades and then coming Monday it keeps continuing downwards that is a continued response from the earnings you could get some really really nice plays and the stocks

Can move a lot so that will be the second plan looking at and then finally two things one Shopify giving the really any company I think Netflix we have to see it and we have to see if other companies report and confirm what we saw

But now if it's reasonable to expect these companies that were supposed to be winners and q2 are gonna really surprise analysts and cut back their estimates because of potential slowing or returning to normal because the virus a

Lot of these growth stocks could get hit so I'm gonna be looking at like Roku and some of those but Shopify that would be one of those remember they profited immensely off of e-commerce so they're probably gonna kill this quarter but if

Their future estimates come in whack they might be liable for a grim reaper I'm gonna be looking for that so watch them I'm gonna be seeing that again the premiums are expensive but I was only looking at calls so we'll see the puts

And then finally Disney again giving Netflix I think it's gonna be the same situation that I just outlined for Shopify and even what we saw at Netflix but I think Disney might do a little bit worse so I'm switching sides here again

The calls I think have a little bit of value remember we trimmed already these positions right here remember I had a hundred of these I trimmed them still got a small gain again hopefully there's bullishness but I don't know if Netflix

Will clap it I'm probably gonna exit out of these or I might keep it cuz it's a large amount and that could justify me getting a big put position but I feel like Disney's gonna be a little bit more vulnerable now after that Netflix report

Because they cut the dividend the closings now so I think the market might very well be pricing in good Disney Plus growth even though I was saying they might not but if they had I think they're q3 estimates might be the dagger

So it could really be Disney also as well too so I'm gonna keep an eye out for them but we will see so I need to finish structuring and building that full Disney play pretty much I'm not done I thought I was only gonna go calls

But now you see earnings comes around it gives us more information and we could set up a play so watch those as far as everything else we got to play on Twitter I think I got 50 or something

How many I got yeah I got 50 of these $19 puts at 11 cents again I told you guys the reasoning why and I kind of was operating on the philosophy X low when they act fast you act slow and they X

Low you act fast cuz I don't know I feel like there's still more info the FBI got involved with that but again Twitter I've never really liked them so I'm really biased on there and again I had that old September position I used that

As a gauge they didn't go up in the morning so that's why I like this play no I got this within 30 minutes of the market and that's what I said I was gonna do I use the old graveyard play that I had and I noticed they were

Barely up even though Twitter really gapped down in the morning and then it started to come up and was struggling when I was like well those puts are really really cheap then so are they're not moving they got a decent amount of

Time so I got closer to the money for cheaper than I spent the first time I was with it but there was that play watch Facebook again I was looking at them they reacted to the Netflix watch again all of the thing is gonna be

Important I think Microsoft they outpaced heavily today don't want to say they're looking weaker but out of a lot of those companies that I got the puts on there puts are the ones holding up premium just a little bit weird so they

Have my interest I'd keep an eye on them watch Shopify I really really like I mean I wish I got some of the puts earlier here but they have some of the same features that Netflix would have so keep that in mind then zoom falls in

That category but I don't know how they've been performing oh yeah that could be a good one as well too so I'm gonna watch them but it's been very hard to bet against zoom so be careful because they have been really the fan

Favorite and all this watch Apple as far as Bo XL and even VAX art I made moves on them I know we've been talking about them really this thing box will shot up in the morning and I was like wow that's good but everybody kept talking about it

And then again I looked on you put this thing on Twitter again I explained how sketchy it was and how I felt towards it so I was I really wasn't tempted to hold it too long here so I held out in the morning but I sold out 600 shares at 367

Remember we bought a thousand at 206 so I spent two thousand bucks yesterday got back 2200 for 600 shares I'm these 300 shares and I'm gonna hold these till September 3rd so that's when they're gonna be doing some voting and

We're dilutive measures may come into place so that's gonna kind of be my re-evaluation point otherwise I'm gonna swing this we got a profit there's no way we could lose any real money except for pure profit this is fourteen hundred

And eighty dollars pure profit there you go so I did the same exact thing with vac sir I've been holding that I had a bigger position and I was able to get 200 free shares same exact logic we just swung this for a little bit longer

Bought 500 shares there at $4,600 sold 300 today at 4800 got 200 net profit and then I have 200 shares for free and we're gonna just ride this till they get the vaccine or they don't the idea is you know a lot of these 3,000 here a

Thousand there if some of these stocks again even like box or even if it's not a scam and is a good education play you know we'll get to hold that throughout in a thousand bucks shares that don't expire a lot of these companies have

Gone 10x so it could do a lot of damage though but watch all the medicine companies again just the fact that some of these even held up today the facts even VAX are held up I would take positive note of that even mirna again

I'm still in this but usually you've seen the sell-off and then they would kind of just sell off instantly so you had insider sales this is again look at the volume to to a lot of these companies it's looking very FM units

It's playing out a little bit different and I will say that vaccine time lines have moved up to some sources like Falchi but watch them and don't forget about this Co DX I forgot we're still holding on but remember they're still in

The mix and that's what I'm saying some of these have held up it's interesting to watch although is finally watch TLT the 30-year mortgage dropped today a lot of people talked about that but there's movements we talked a little bit about

The theory earlier today I'll watch them and finally another one finally just watch Boeing again we have our strangles they're like four or five hundred or three hundred bucks both ways they have my attention again they've been

Outpacing heavily or leading heavily the last few days keep an eye on them I I hope you guys are ready welcome to earnings but that is or watch this ladies and gentlemen make sure how's your healthy ready to go make sure you

Post your watchlist make sure we see you there in the morning I need the armor on I need the helmet shining I need you to learn and take value and handling it baby he won't give you more than you can handle so if

You want a lot of stuff get ready to handle a lot of stuff baby get in the game balance the budget this is earnings and this is a historical moment don't get caught sleeping don't get goddamn bling think about the future just a

Little bit baby but the code loves you I love you all see you in the morning let's go

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