MrBeast’s $1,000,000 Dilemma

published on July 13, 2020

Vsauce Kevin here with a video giveaway idea for YouTube's most prolific philanthropist mr beast it gives everyone who watches it including you a chance to win 1 million dollars here are the rules of my hypothetical contest mr beast makes a video and if that video

Gets one single like only one thumbs up in the first 24 hours the person who liked the video wins a million bucks however if more than one person smashes that like button or nobody clicks it at all then no one wins anything oh and

Another thing only mr beast can see whether anyone has liked the video everyone is playing the game blind to the results you'll have no way of knowing whether you're the first and only person to like the

Video or the 10 millionth so what do you do do you click like and magically hope you're the only person who did do you like the video just to troll the contest hoping it'll ruin someone else's chances do you do nothing and forego the chance

Of winning feeling safe in the knowledge that you didn't ruin it for anyone else here's the biggest question is it even possible to win this game welcome to the plateau Nia dilemma a mathematical game devised by cognitive

Scientist Douglas Hofstadter his version went like this 20 people were sent telegrams by fictitious oil baron SN plutonium if only one person replied to the telegram that person would win 1 billion dollars if nobody or more than

One person replied no one wins anything collusion or secretly working together was strictly forbidden and participants didn't even know who the other 19 potential respondents were anyway so like they couldn't all get together and

Agree that only number 15 would reply and the rest of them would split the billion dollars you know 20 different ways in an attempt to rationally solve this dilemma in your favor you face four important questions

What should I do what will other people do what should I do after knowing what other people will do what will other people do after knowing that I know what they do and the answers to these questions are I don't

Know not sure no idea and who knows because the thing is the more rational we all are the more the right answer keeps changing cheating the game is a good example of this and we'll get to that in

A bit but to make the best of the plutonium dilemma your rationality alone isn't enough no no we need super rationality Hofstadter describes super rationality as a state of knowing the perfectly rational thing to do but also

Knowing that everyone else knows and will behave the exact same way so you know they know you know they know and you know they know you know that process goes on forever and everyone arrives at the same exact conclusion it's like a

Rational singularity Hofstadter decided the best way forward the super rational thing to do was to roll a 20 sided or icosahedral die and commit to only replying to the telegram if his pre chosen number came up like the number 1

Here's why the best odds for someone to win this game occur when you transcend the rationality Hyperloop you have to move beyond simply trying to figure out what should I do what will other people do etc and create an artificial

Probability mechanism if all 20 people in the game act super rationally they'll each roll a 20-sided die once and commit to replying to the telegram only if they roll a one that leaves about a thirty seven percent chance of

Somebody winning it is possible for no one to roll a one and it's also possible for more than one person to roll a one so that means that your personal odds of winning are not one out of twenty which would be 5% know your odds of winning

Personally are about two percent but at least this super rational system leaves the game up to math instead of everyone just guessing why not cheat though seriously uh why don't you just lie and reply anyway if there's

Only a thirty seven percent chance that somebody won that way you would be the winner if none of the other 19 players rolled a one genius but if you know that then that means other people know that and they'd cheat – which would instantly

Wipe out the boosted odds of winning by lying the rational thing for you to do is cheat but if everyone thinks that they'll also cheap and then everyone loses that's why the super rational thing to do is not cheat Hofstadter even

Suggested removing the cheap temptation entirely by using a die rolling machine that instantly replied to plaque tonyia if and only if he rolled a one but this is all just a theoretical right it's really hard to do that these sticky

Things we don't actually know how people would behave in a plateau Nia likes itchin right wrong it actually happened Huff's that are convinced Scientific American to run what he called a luring lottery in a 1983 meta magical Themis

Column the basic rules were a little different but the essence was the same the prize for one lucky lottery winner was 1 million bucks which would be divided by n where n equals the number of entries mailed in there was

However a crucial twist instead of each reply counting as one entry you could write any number on the postcard and it would count for that many entries so a postcard with a 1 on it counts as one entry a postcard with 1 million on it

Counts as a million entries a higher number of entries gave the player a better chance of winning but it also reduced the potential prize money some people submitted Googleplex entries which is 10 raised to a Boogle others

Wrote mathematical expressions that filled the postcard resulting in incalculably high numbers which meant the total entries hit such an unfathomable number that Scientific American was unable to choose a winner

It became impossible and even if they could have the winner would have received 1 million dollars divided by such a high end that the prize would have worked out to an infinitesimal fraction of one cent the takeaway here

Is that coupling unlimited entries with people pursuing their own self-interest while recognizing that everyone else would do that too quickly bulldozed that 1 million dollar prize into dust nobody won the intrigue of the

Plateau Nia dilemma is less about how to win the game and more about how to think about how to win the game it's about merging math and you how you behave how other people behave and how we can use our minds and math to eclipse our

Imperfect rationality so if mr beast launches his version of the plateau Nia dilemma and it's your turn to like the video what do you do what will everyone else do you rational are they rational is

Everyone super rational the most likely scenario for you or anyone to win would require all 10 million viewers to act super rationally with no cheating no trolling and each person rolling a die with 10 million sides

I think mr beasts million is safe on this one pockets not open and as always thanks for watching I want a Vsauce hat is a thought that popped into my brain one day so I designed this hat for myself if you want

To get one for yourself just go to curiosity boxcom slash store if you just want to keep watching Vsauce 2 videos well i recommend the missing dollar riddle that's a good one and if you aren't subscribed yet to vsauce to

Do that right now if you ever want to see the sun rise again oops that's a little dramatic the Sun doesn't actually rise or set contingent upon whether or not you are subscribed to Vsauce 2 I think

Related Videos

hey guys techrax here coming at you guys with another giveaway this is gonna be an iPhone 5s two of these brand new phones not the one in this video guys this i...
hey guy there's a popular game in the app store called flappy bird right now and it's supposedly really annoying believe it or not I haven't played ...
hey guys tech Rex here so right here with me I have an Apple iPhone 5s this is the gold one I also have with me some liquid nitrogen yes this is the real deal a...
hey guys techrax here right here I have the iPhone 5s with me this is the champagne or the gold color I still can't really figure out if it's champagne ...
hey guys tear cracks here so this video really exciting video I have the new Samsung Galaxy s5 for you guys this is the long-awaited cellular devices releases i...
everyone techrax here in this video I've got the latest Samsung Galaxy s5 right here as well as the Apple iPhone 5s and we're going to be doing a simple...
everyone techrax here in this video guys have a really exciting device this is the Samsung Galaxy s5 charcoal black and I'm really liking I after seeing the...
everyone techrax here here with me off the Samsung Galaxy s5 this is a perfectly fine s5 it is cracked from the drop test that I had with also one minor neck as...
hey guys tetrax here so in this video I'm going to try and burn the newly released Samsung Galaxy s5 this is the shimmering white 16 gigabyte model and if y...
everyone techrax here so I got my burn Samsung Galaxy s5 and I wanted to see whether the heartbeat sensor would still work the heart monitor on your galaxy s5 a...
hey guys Tech Rex here so I'm really excited to bring you guys a giveaway for my channel but this time I'm actually teaming up with a buddy of mine your...
hey guys techrax here so in this video I'm going to be hopefully instructing you guys how to make your very own a tech sandwich slash burger slash meal so y...
hey guys techrax here so I've got a galaxy s5 here this is the copper gold hopefully you guys can see pretty well it is sunset so it's getting a little ...
hey guys techrax here so right here with me I have a professional deep fryer in here is already some canola or corn or whatever oil I don't know vegetable o...
hey guys techrax here so just trying to make this video short and quick i'm having recently i got five hundred thousand subscribers and yeah most of you guy...
hey guys texture so in this video I have a drop test on the latest LG g3 device now this is actually the gold-coloured LG g3 this has not been released in the U...
hey guys techrax here so in this video we'll teach you guys how to make your iPhone indestructible this is essentially a case that's been around for yea...
hey guys techrax here soon in this video we had a train run over the iPhone 5s so we actually did this in two different instances initially we had a Space Gray ...
hey guys tech cracks here so in this video we're going to be dropped testing the newly released Amazon fire phone this is exclusive for AT&T and I belie...
hey guys techrax here so right here with me I have the Amazon fire phone this is the one I dropped and you know I thought what better what else do I do with thi...