How Reserve Banks React to Economic Pressure · Kevin Muir

by birtanpublished on August 10, 2020

Markets speculation and risk this is the chaplet traders podcast hosted by Erin Fifield traders welcome to the show this is episode 192 similar to the last episode with Nishant Porbandar Ella this episode also has a relevant focus on current events as we've seen making

Headlines recently Reserve banks of numerous countries have been adding the quiddity to the market in an effort to stabilize economies while some listeners will already understand exactly how Reserve banks conduct these operations a

Figure there will be many others myself included who don't completely grasp what takes place below the surface to get clarity on the subject I kindly asked Kevin Muir to a parent chat with traders for a second time and to explain the

Actions of Reserve Banks during this market downturn because in my opinion Kevin has a gift for analyzing and explaining complex subjects in a way which is easy to follow Kevin was a derivatives trader for a Canadian bank

During the 90s and has been an independent trader from 2000 onward he also writes a brilliant financial newsletter a macro tourists and co-hosts the market huddle podcast the links to his newsletter podcast as well as our

First interview check the show notes at chat with traders comm / 1 9 – Kevin before we get into your thoughts and your perspectives too much on what's happening let's just get some clarity about what's actually taking place now

One of the things which has been making headlines not only in the US but Australia Europe etc is central bank's injecting liquidity into the market so one of the questions I'd like to start things with is what exactly happens when

A Reserve Bank adds liquidity into the market well Aaron they can do it through a variety of different methods the most common one is they actually go out and buy securities and if you go look at the

Federal Reserve they announce they actually announced on Friday the the schedule for the rest of the week of what they were gonna buy and you'll see that today for Monday March 30th at 9:30 to 9:50 they were gonna buy coupons

Treasury coupons from the seven to twenty year sector for six billion then at ten twenty to ten forty they're gonna buy the four and a half to seven years sector for 11 billion and so on and so on so the way they actually do this

Operation is that they go out they announce to the marketplace that they're gonna they're looking for six billion dollars of these securities then they go talk to the primary dealers and they tell them to submit their offers and the

Primary dealers send in a list at that scheduled time and then the Fed actually just lifts their offers they actually buy it so the primary dealer was holding this in inventory and they're no longer holding it in inventory and in lauda two

Ways it's that simple they're buying the assets from the marketplace that the marketplace is having trouble financing and warehousing so what's an example of a primary dealer like who would that be it would be a JP Morgan or like Royal

Bank I believe is a primary dealer even though we're Canadian were a primary dealer they're basically just very kind of senior banks that deal directly with the Fed and why would someone like JP Morgan or whoever the other primary

Dealers might be why would they actually want to sell to the Fed well they're selling to the Fed because they're making markets in these securities all the time and not only that it is their job to go and to facilitate the trades

Of the Fed just like it's their job to bid on the securities when the Treasury is auctioning securities they're actually obligated to bid for a certain amount that is their uh it is their duty to actually help the Fed conduct these

Operations someone has to trade with the Fed they can't go out and buy directly from the clients they're basically a middleman between the clients and the Federal Reserve

Interestingly enough Aaron that the Fed is buying so much right now that for the first time ever I was talking to a tips trader that was telling me that the Fed was trying to buy six or seven billion dollars of tips and the primary dealers

Only offered them four point seven they were they literally ran out of inventory to offer to the Federal Reserve and that's what that's the one thing I just would like people to kind of understand is the level and the speed upon which

They're doing these purchases is completely unprecedented they announced two weeks ago that they were going to do 700 billion dollars of quantitative easing and they left it open they said it was going to be over a period of a

Couple months but they didn't say that they couldn't stagger some more at the beginning and so what they did was they went looked at the state of the market and they just they got a feel for how much they needed to do well they

Literally went through that 700 billion in the first week they are buying the equivalent of a 2008 quantitative easing it used to be basically 60 to 80 billion I can't remember the exact number they were

Doing that every day for the past two weeks the stack of blue tickets on the Federal Reserve's desk is monstrous and then there's other ways as well that they can provide liquidity to the markets one of the most interesting

Things they've done is that they've done these swap lines where they actually go and provide US dollars to other central banks they did this in 2008 they did it to they I can't remember I think it's there's four standard banks that they do

It with it's a banking Canada ECB Bank of England and I don't know I'm not sure who else it is but they go and they provide these kind of liquidity these US dollar liquidity to just free up the system well there was such a demand for

US dollars at this time they expanded their counterparties to ten different banks central banks and this was all in an attempt to try to help the world economy that was in desperate need of US dollars to

Provide the liquidity that no one else could provide you did say something in your honor today you spoke about tips what a tips tips are Treasury inflation-protected securities they're just another form of government security

So the Fed that not only do they buy regular government bonds but they also buy Treasury inflation-protected securities okay and what is the goal that the Fed is trying to accomplish by doing this

Their goal is to try to make the system have enough kind of liquidity so that it begins to operate correctly again see what happens is that there's basically not enough money in the system because credit is being contracted the and

Basically there's there's not enough chips to go around so therefore it ends up being this kind of game of whack-a-mole that you know what one person whacks it and then it comes up again and they try to whack it again and

And it just becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where the credit current contraction of selling causes the value to go down which then means that more people have to sell and so what they're trying to do is provide enough liquidity

To stop that kind of that kind of reinforcing kind of spiral and what they do is they take all the securities that they can that the from the dealer's bank balance sheets that they're having trouble financing and having trouble

Owning so that the dealers can buy other things that are more risky so the goal is to try to make it so that these banks the JP Morgan's of the world don't need to worry about financing Treasuries and don't need to worry about that and they

Can go out and they can buy the more risky securities that basically the Fed should not be buying because at the end of the day the Fed is supposed to buy only government securities now it is being blend it is being kind of kind of

Let us just say it's changing this time in 2008 there was the tarp program and there was some different things in the Fed got in trouble because they blurred the lines of what they were allowed to buy and then Congress went and they

Actually tied their hands again but in this case what's happened is the Treasury's gone and actually I'm taking a role where they've worked hand-in-hand with the Fed so that the Fed can buy corporate bonds but the Treasury takes

The first loss so that the Fed is in essence still taking the government risk and it's a riskless security for the for the Federal Reserve because the Federal Reserve is not supposed to be trying to pick which countries which countries I'm

Sorry which companies should survive and which shouldn't they shouldn't be sitting there going I'm gonna buy GE paid but I'm not going to buy Boeing paper they that's not their goal their goal is

To provide liquidity for the system now unfortunately what happened was because there was this you know terrible virus and because nobody wanted to own any securities the government was forced to go and say no we're gonna backstop

Investment-grade paper as well meaning investment great is the kind of higher grade corporate paper you know bonds and so what they did was the Fed found a way working hand-in-hand with the Treasury to actually buy corporate paper can you

Just explain what corporate paper is okay so that's like GE or Boeing or Microsoft or Apple issues bonds and those bonds traded in the open market and that would be an example of corporate paper investment grade has to

Do with the ratings attached to that bond and generally that's considered the the higher quality companies and then it goes from there it goes into high-yield or junk which is anything below triple B and that is kind of what the Fed said

We're not gonna buy any of that but we're gonna buy investment grade paper okay so how come they were doing that this time like what why this time because the market became so dysfunctional and that

There was nobody willing to buy it that the Fed needed to backstop it now is this correct me if I misunderstood you here but when you were talking earlier it sounds as though the Fed comes in with all these billions to buy back

Government bonds and they might do so from a primary dealer such as JP Morgan which frees up some capital with JP Morgan which then allows them to go and purchase more risky assets if necessary right or to make room for the their

Balance sheet for the assets that they that they need to hold either way it's just it's just helping the system in terms of providing liquidity to the system okay so in this case what happens if the Fed announces that they're inject

700 billion dollars worth of liquidity into the market what do they do when they don't get the reaction that was intended I don't remember exactly which date it was but I think it was a Sunday evening when the emoney came back online

And they must have announced it shortly after or just after the open and it instantly went limit down right well first of all I would argue that the Fed does not care about the stock market well the they care but that's not their

Primary goal they are more interested in the functioning of the credit markets the stock market is something that they watch out of the corner of their eye and it's obviously important as a signal but really what what what kind of lit the

Fire under their their their ass in terms of actually doing stuff was when the credit market started breaking and that's when they decided that note we got to get in there and we have to do it because if the credit markets start

Breaking then everything else just falls to the wayside really quickly and this is one of the things that I would like to stress for you know when investors are thinking about this environment and they're thinking about the different

Opportunities there are after this huge sell-off in you know a from the virus and they see guys like Marc Lasry from Avenue Capital or Seth Klarman going out and actually raising money to go out and buy assets one of the things that I want

Them to probably understand is that these guys are probably not buying the equity what they are buying more often than not are these distressed bonds that are high quality bonds that are trading a levels that are just wrong

And so one of the things that you have to just keep in the back of your mind is that some of the smartest guys out there are actually seeing the opportunities today and in actually committing capital but

The opportunities are not in the equity market they're actually in the corporate market let's just take a step back there you said that the Fed is not so concerned about the actual stock market more so about the credit market so when

You talk about the credit market are you referring to the government bonds the credit market is both government bonds and also corporate bonds bonds of all sort it's also money market it's just all all the functioning the day-to-day

Functioning of the kind of the credit that goes back and forth between companies and and the cash flows and the financing of commercial paper and the financing of the government's balance sheet it's all that is infinitely more

Important than the equity market right see you said that the Fed wasn't so concerned about the stock market breaking down it was more about the credit market breaking down so what I mean

Most of us listening to this know what it looks like when the stock market breaks down what does it look like when the credit market begins to break down well the first thing you'll notice is that securities that are not on like

What are called off the run meaning that there's a standard bond that everybody trades that's the most recent bond but then there's the other ones the ones that were previously auctioned and those usually traded a slight discount to the

On the run because there's less liquidity well all of a sudden investors couldn't sell those at all so that's called the the spread between the on them running off the run bonds and that was a trade that for example in 1998 the

Long-term capital had on you know they would go by the twenty nine and a half year bond and sell the 30-year bond and eventually that spread would go you know back into line but they would have to hold it for a little while

Well those spreads those kind of trades started blowing out meaning that they you know whereas they usually we traded a 20 you know basis point difference they started trading at a hundred basis point difference and then you would see

Things like high-yield and and corporate spreads meaning the price that corporation has to pay versus the government bond and so if the government borrows money a 1 and an investment grade borrows money

At 3 that would be called a 200 point credit spread meaning that you have to pay 200 extra over the government well those spreads went from you know I think that let's just have a look here I have this written down let me grab it

The aggregate corporate spread went from a hundred basis points and then it went to three hundred and sixty-five in the space of two weeks that's just like that's unheard of the high yield went from three hundred and fifty basis

Points to eleven hundred basis points so we as you had you know companies that used to be able borrow money of 5% they now alson had to pay 13% if is that sort of moves that you imagine if your all sudden you're going and your mortgage is

Floating and they tell you it's gone up by eight hundred basis points in the space of two weeks that's the sort of stress and that causes the system to really get into trouble because it ends up being that without that kind of those

With those spreads blowing out like that that the whole the whole thing starts kind of unraveling just going back to the question I asked you a little earlier what does a the Fed or you know any reserve bank for that matter what do

They do if Injection if liquidity doesn't have the intended reaction and has it had the intended reaction this far well I I would say that when they announced the

First one like when they've because don't forget they've done 2 QE so far they did the first one which was 700 billion and now they came back with the QE unlimited which is basically no amount and we will do whatever it takes

The first one the 700 billion they didn't tie their hands about how much they would buy every day they left it open-ended and I think that they went into the market they bought it and they realized how much was for sale and they

Upped the amount that they were gonna buy so when you ask what does the Fed do when it doesn't have the reaction that it's intended they do more so they realize that the system they don't know the right number because they don't

Understand the stresses like that well in terms of like the specific how much it's gonna take to fix it so they're always kind of feeling their way along buying some seen what's happening to spreads see what happens

Find some more tomorrow and they do that so in fact I would say that the first one didn't have the effect that they wanted it to have because they were forced to come back with the second one which was QE unlimited with the extra

Swap lines and and the corporate paper so that's the long and short of it is that when it doesn't have the results that they are intending they do more and this is an important part Aaron to think about is that a lot of people will think

To themselves oh the feds gonna run out of money the Fed can never run out of money it is they are the issuer of the you know the government is the issue of the currency theoretically they could buy every bond on offer if they wanted

To and and so when you're thinking about shorting against this and thinking to yourself oh you know what the the feds gonna stop and the feds gonna run out of money or they're gonna this isn't gonna work

I always say be very careful about that the idea because the Fed could literally just keep buying and buying and buying and buy there's even stopping them from buying stocks if we change the rules that we that we

Operate under that is the self-imposed rule meaning that the gut or the Fed that they can't buy stocks but in other countries the central banks are allowed to buy stocks Japan they're buying stocks and in fact in Switzerland

They're buying US stocks so they're imagine a situation where it gets really bad and the virus continues to kind of I don't know let's you know make society unstable and one of the worries is that the you know that the we're having a

Financial crisis I could envision a world where the Fed starts buying sp500 it's not you know out of the realm of possibility and there's nothing fundamentally stopping them because they are the issuer of the credit they can

Just they could just you know debit one side and credit the other and then it's as simple as that they're just entries in a computer what are the negative effects of central bank's having an unlimited supply of

Money and also are there negative effects of them actually intervening in capital markets well Aaron some people will say that you know the hard money guys that think that it should be we should be on a gold standard would argue

That there's tons of negative effects and that this is the reason that we're in this predicament is because the Fed keeps intervening and doing this I don't know if I buy that that argument but I will say that the without the Fed we

Would have a situation where we would have had more deflationary busts now you might argue that that's what the system needs the system needs kind of a cleansing deflationary bust I would argue that it would actually have caused

Massive kind of unemployment and it might might have cleanse the system but it would have been very painful so it's you know it's a tough philosophical thing that comes down to what how you what you believe money is and how it

Should operate and who is it who's the benefit for and and what is the what is the goal of the Federal Reserve is the Federal Reserve there to try to maximize employment or is the Federal Reserve there trying to maximize

The or maintain the value of the dollar so as we've been talking about here central bank's adding liquidity into the marketplace is this something which just takes place on an ongoing basis you know week after week and it normally doesn't

Make the headlines like is this something which happens regularly anyway it's normally just on a smaller scale so there was a time when the Federal Reserve basically didn't announce any of their changes and would execute a

Monetary policy by intervening in the market and buying or selling tea bills and I remember a time well you know I'm showing my age but that you would have to wait till 11:45 and you would go watch for them and you would see what

They did and if they conducted operations you could see that they had changed the rate of of the interest rates through their open market operations so to answer your question is that it used to be that the Fed was

Constantly buying and selling tea bills to maintain the rate that that they were trying to kind of target then what happened is in 2008 when we had the great financial crisis we basically hit the zero bound and then that changed the

Way that the whole system operates and we went to a system with interest on excess reserves and during that period with when the cover when the when the Fed can actually just set the rate and basically have a savings account that

The the primary dealers use then there's no need for them to operate to buy and sell kind of securities on a regular basis now having said that don't forget that they had run up their balance sheet in the QE one two and three under

Bernanke and then was actually they were trying to wind that down under Powell when first came in that was what the the taper and eventually the quantitative tightening quantity tightening is the

Exact opposite of quantitative easing that in that instead of the Federal Reserve kind of buying securities they sell securities and so they asked dealers for bids instead of asking for dealers for offers and so during those

Periods they actually were in the markets on a regular basis but it wasn't to the extent that they're in there today when the quantity of tightening I think they might have sold once or twice a week and so there would be two

Operations a week at most even during the quantitative tightening I mean quantitative easing I think it was two operations a week this one is just this quantity but unlimited is completely and utterly unprecedented like I'm counting

Here one two three four five six seven they have seven purchases per day of different securities so this is much much different the virus was something that we've never seen before and the feds reaction to the virus is

Something we've never seen before what do you make of all this let's put this to get a bit more of your actual perspective and your thoughts on what's taking place at the moment and I guess how this might play out a little bit as

You've said a couple times you know it's uncharted territory we've not seen something like this before yeah what are you seeing well I understand why the feds doing it I I'm sympathetic to it and I think that they're doing the right

Thing and and even if I didn't think they were doing the right thing it doesn't matter what I think well you know in all the matters is what they're actually doing I saw that the Bank of Canada the other day the the governor of

The Bank in Canada said something to the effect that some have suggested that he is using a lot of firepower and then he says a firefighter has never been criticized for using too much water the central bankers of the world are

Rightfully scared about a shock to the system because this is something that's you know we basically shut off our economy for a month or could two months or three months who knows so they are throwing everything they have

At it and where is a lot of kind of market pundits will look at it and say that's gonna end badly I think I'm gonna short like ESPYs because it's gonna it's gonna cause you know what this thing's gonna collapse in on itself I'm more

Worried about the opposite I'm more worried they're gonna throw so much at this thing that it is gonna ignite like a fireball and I look at when we come on the other side of this how they're gonna unwind this is going to be very very

Difficult but I don't think they're worrying about that right now because there's just this is a this is a lot different than the 2008 crisis in the 2008 crisis it was a bunch of greedy banksters that had kind of gotten over

Their skis and gotten into trouble now eventually it threatened to take down the whole system and the central banks had to come to the rescue but on the whole they they didn't really want to save the system they wanted that they

Wanted it to cleanse out they wanted to get rid lymon to be taught a lesson they wanted to have these things change you know they wanted the system cut to kind of deal ever because it was too levered up in this case this was an azure janus

Event there was really nobody's fault and not only that it's not some greedy banksters this time it's you know everybody including the mom and pops that you know did nothing wrong so when I look at the the kind of central bank's

They have the moral authority to do whatever it takes and you'll see them saying that time and time again we will do whatever it takes and if there's one thing I would just kind of like to leave you know your listeners with it's that

Don't forget that they will continue to buy and and support markets in whatever size is needed and they are not going to get scared off because it's a certain size they are just going to keep standing in there and they're going to

Keep buying it and ends up being that they own every guy you know Treasury on the market so be it one of the things you said to me prior to prior to our call is that you'd like to speak about how we've never seen the

Government I think it was the government in the Treasury correct me if I'm wrong they're working so closely together as they are at the moment is that something you'd like to speak to sure yeah no I'd love to love to talk about that

I've contended that Donald Trump was the most mmt president that we've ever had modern monetary theory and what a modern monetary theory kind of theorist believes is that the government is never constrained by financial constraints

Meaning that the the people that tell you oh the government has a hundred percent of debt to GDP they don't worry about that they say that the government is only constrained by real resources and what does that mean it means that

The government can keep spending until they reach a point where they use so much resources real resources that they cause inflation and I've argued that Donald Trump is the most mmt president that we've ever had even to the fact

That you take like his his stimulus plan he did a stimulus pan eight years into economic expansion most keen scenes would tell you at that point that you should be trying to balance budgets not Donald Trump and when they asked him why

You know he wanted the interest rates lower and when they asked him why if the economy is so good why he wants interest rates lower he says because there's no inflation which is exactly what an mmt or would say so when we come to this

Point we get to this this kind of crisis that we're having from the virus and a lot of kind of Austrians and and hard money guys would say the government can't be spending at this point because we don't have the balance sheet to do it

We're already indebted by whatever it is and we don't want to be saddling our grandchildren with this debt well that isn't happening here the government is going in doing a kind of a fiscal stimulus or saving a fiscal kind

Of rescue package to the to the tune of 10 percent of GDP Japan is talking about doing 16 percent of GDP so governments are spending like nobody's business and right and rightfully so because there's

Been a huge demand shock and the if you think about it the Federal Reserve and other central banks are there to finance it and if it comes down to the market this ends up being worried about how much the government is spending we could

Eventually hit a point where instead of the government issuing bonds and then the Fed buying the back through quantitative easing we just get a situation where the Federal Reserve says we're gonna you know do two trillion

Dollars of spending and the feds gonna buy it all because if you think about the process that we're going about doing it the we go federal the Treasury spends they issue bonds the public the primary dealers buy them the public you know

Trades them and then the the Treasury butter the Federal Reserve buys them back so what we could just eliminate the middleman and and that is one of the things that well should give kind of the hard money guys shivers and because

Eventually we're gonna see a situation where that's occurring and we've kind of gone through three decades or four decades of lower and lower inflation rates and everybody thinks that we can't create inflation and I argue that we we

Can't create inflation because we keep relying on the private sector to try to create inflation you know through the banking system and through people taking out loans well as we try to as we saddle people with more and more debt it

Becomes more and more difficult for them to to take out even you know the Ekrem ental amount of debt ends up being more difficult so they're kind of more hesitant so eventually you get to a point where the private sector can't

Create inflation which is basically what you're seeing in Europe no matter how low you put rates if they don't respond and in fact you get to the point where you get into negative rates and the private sector if you

You send them lower they become even less incentivized to actually go and take out loans because it ends up being it's deflationary so at that point it's up to the government and uh you know up until now most governments apart from

Donald Trump have been reluctant to go and spend you know you see Germany trying to balance the budget and saying that Italy can't go and run a deficit even you see in your country or in your ear from Australia right mm-hmm

Your your latest guy up until before the forest fires he was talking about running a balanced budget and he was he was trying to he ran on it on trying to balance the budget and that's starving the system of money and it in an

Environment with private limited private sector credit creation it's kind of you know it's the formula for lower and lower interest rates so I understand why people think that we can't make inflation but what they fail to realize

Is that if the government goes and spends they can do it whenever they want I look back at history and I don't know a single country that has ever collapsed because of deflation but I know lots of countries has collapsed because of

Inflation and all you needed to do is have a change in attitude about government spending and I think that you're gonna find that we're gonna be able to create the inflation that was so elusive and this virus what I think will

Prove to be the deflationary impulse that changes that attitude and encourages people to go and spend and it first still feel great Aaron I think that it'll do really well as the government spends and it'll be terrific

But like all things they'll take it too far and we'll go through kind of what I feel great at the beginning will end up hurting at the end but we're miles away from that though I just want to say I understand that that road is for the

Hard money people will say like that's it that's a terrible road to go down because that's where we end up and it doesn't even matter you know Aaron if you and I think that's where we're gonna end up all I'm saying is that's where

We're headed and I think that this virus is kind of cemented that that path in front of us well Kevin I think this has been really insightful certainly helped myself and I'm sure many people listening to this

To understand some of these subjects a little bit deeper below the surface is there anything else you'd like to add before we close things out here no you know what Erin it's been a pleasure being on with you I just want to say

Thank you for having me and I really enjoy your show and I and I think it's you do a terrific job and it's a great resource for traders alike and I just wanted to thank you for all the hard work you put into it no trouble at all

Men thank you again for coming back on anyone who's listening to this if they'd like to follow along with your insights I know there's a couple places they can do so you have a podcast you have a newsletter you're also reasonably active

On Twitter do you want to share those few things sure so on Twitter it's at Kevin Muir Mui our I write a letter and if you want to see an example of it just shoot me an email it's get the the letter it's

Called the macro tourist and you could get it to it at the macro tourist dotsub but send me an email at Kevin at the macro tourist calm and I'll fire you off kind of a couple latest kind of copies of different editions and then

Finally if you're interested I do have a podcast it's called the market huddle it's a little more kind of laid-back it's a couple guys drinking beer and talking markets and you can get that at at the market huddle comm co and you

Have a car heist on that podcast who's that that's right that's Patrick Stu resna he we kind of I laugh about it he cheats on me he also is on macro voices he's the co-host he's the co-star macro voices and then

This is this is our fun thing that we do on the side is we like to get different traders and drink some beer and talk markets yeah and if there's a one particular episode you've been doing it for about a year and a half now if

There's one episode which people should start with or just check out to get a good idea on it so previously our most popular episode with this fellow by the name of Jimmy Jude who is an ex murk trader the Chicago Mercantile

Exchange we decided that he was so much fun and that the world could use a little bit of something to smile at that we brought it back this last week and he came back and it was a huge hit so go check it out

It's Jimmy Jude Ju de and he's just a blast it's kind of a it's a great taste of what the shows like and I think you'll think you'll enjoy it and what episode number is uh oh I don't you know what you're putting me on the spot

Actually no I'll take it up and I'll put it in the show notes okay that's terrific it's uh it's the one from what March 27th okay March 27 2020 yes cool that's right all right Kevin will again thank you very much for

Returning it's been a absolute pleasure to have you on again and I'm sure we'll speak again before too long well thanks for having me on Aaron it's a lot of fun you've reached the end of this episode of chat with traders but rest assured

There are more episodes loaded with real market insight and zero hype on the way soon so to stay updated with each great new release subscribe to the podcast on itunes and we'd love it if you'd leave a rating

And review we'll catch you next time on chat with traders

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