Gold & Silver Price Update – July 30, 2020 + US Dollar Collapse?

published on August 2, 2020

Ladies and gentlemen welcome back this is christopher aaron it is july 30th 2020 we are going to talk about an important topic we're going to look at the potential for a us dollar collapse let's see what the visible evidence for this

Is before we do that though i think we should acknowledge here just a brief pause and acknowledge gold as priced in us dollars new all-time high for the history of mankind this is the highest price

That gold has ever been so anyone who has ever purchased gold and held on to it is now in a profitable situation and this is a very powerful chart because when we

Finally clear above this former resistance level which we're in the process of doing right now i think there's going to be a bit of back and filling perhaps a little correction coming in

But after that initial correction we should be seeing a powerful wave higher here in the gold market that should last for some years and this should begin to pick up some mainstream attention

So do you want to buy it exactly this moment we can talk about that individually i'm not going to cover the gold trajectory in this video but i did want to acknowledge here that we have gold

At an absolute all-time high as priced in the world's reserve currency and this is monumental when this happens if you think about it gold has been used for 5 000 years or

Longer as a store wealth and this is the highest price ever so what i do want to talk about more and this is going to be related is what a bit of the inverse a us dollar collapse let's take a look

At the evidence for that in this video on this end of july broadcast i want to remind you to hit the subscribe button for these free videos and furthermore hit the little bell icon so you get notified when these

Are released we publish several times a month here as often as we can but it's not every week so this way you will get a notice when we publish let's

Talk about what's going on here so there was a federal reserve meeting here in the united states the us central bank this was yesterday this man jerome powell the head of the fed

Uh gave a press conference a virtual press conference and interest rates are being held they're being suppressed at near zero percent here in this country and you know

We could take a couple of hours and dissect the full press release look at every little phrase that they gave there but there's really no need to do that i'm going to summarize it here for you

In just a couple sentences jerome powell said we will continue to do what we need to do to support the economy during the chronovirus pandemic and taking that phrase and filtering it

Through our handy machine here that gives us real world language means we're going to print as much money as we need to for as long as we need to to make sure

That asset prices remain elevated and a thinking person at this point has to begin to ask themselves some questions how is this going to impact the value of the currency if they continue to print

Dollars and print dollars and even if there are waves of deflation that come again where those dollars perhaps are not getting into circulation maybe people keep their dollars and stuff them under

The mattress or banks are not lending a thinking person has to begin to ask themselves are the chickens about to finally come home to roost i think they are and i think we have the

Evidence for that when we look at the us dollar this is the value of the us dollar compared to a basket of world currencies and we are looking 1980 through the present

And every color that you see here on this chart aside from the color of the chickens here has a meaning so when we look at this long-term right broken multi-decade downtrend broken right there uh

That is turquoise for broken trends when we look at the primary long-term trend that we are now in which began at the 2008 lows and we had basically a functional double bottom with the 2011

Low of course this double bottom corresponding with the previous now we can say the previous all-time peak in gold from 2011 and so we have been in a

Rising dollar long-term trend here for greater than the last 10 years and look at exactly where we are now so you can see the importance of these trend breaks when you have a multi-decade

Trend break like this it tends to mean a shift in the market for several years at the very least is underway and right now the dollar index has closed just a couple fractions of a

Point below this 94 level which is the must hold level for the rising trend this gently sloping rising trend that we are now in that we've been in here for the last 10 years

And i will tell you from someone who primarily studies the charts i as we've talked about already i understand the fundamentals i i believe that the fundamentals drive the charts the problem with just

Studying the fundamentals is that it is impossible for any human being to know all of the fundamentals there is literally no way because the fundamentals are a

Combination of what every buyer and seller in the market is thinking and there is no way to know what every buyer and seller is thinking the only way to attempt to know that is to study the price

So we look at the price here and what i'm trying to say is from having studied these charts here across many different asset classes when we get a legitimate breakdown in a multi-decade

Trend that had been attempting to form here a recovery trend in the dollar when we finally get a break of this level and like i said it's coming in at 94 we're fractionally under that as we're speaking here i would like to

See a close here for two weeks in a row below the 94 level to start to say this looks legitimate when we finally get that it is going to signify that the dollar has years of declines ahead of it

So if we think well you know gold has been pretty strong in most major currencies it's just starting to perform well in the us dollar most major world currencies gold is already well at a new all-time

High it has been for several years we're just seeing that in the us dollar how good could gold do if the us dollar actually breaks this 11-year trend now and so i think what is about to happen

Here my read on the technicals for the us dollar is that it's not quite ready to give up the ghost yet it's not quite ready to break the lower boundary of this channel which is so important to see a

Shift of that trend i think we're going to have something like a a one to three month perhaps even extending into the the early part of 2021 a little bit of a bounce here i would be

Very surprised if all those dollar holders who are also following this chart just let it collapse immediately we should see perhaps one final bounce here and then i think this thing is getting

Ready to go and we'll look at some of the the reasons why i think this is actually going to happen in just a moment but i want to show you first how this breakdown would play out we would

See the initial break into the early part of next year we should then see a bit of a recovery rally because we have some decent support here on the dollar index at the 87 level

You can see how this acted a support here in the dash black line this 87 level so i think once we get the initial break of the channel we see a bounce at 87 perhaps up into the 90s again and then

We get the beginning of a major new trend lower and i'm telling you below 87 you can see that right here there really is not a whole lot of support until all the way down at 80 this consolidation back here

But to be to be truthful about how i read this from a technical analyst standpoint below 87 the dollar begins a new bear trend and this should be trending lower it doesn't have to

Outright collapse as some of the hyperbolic headlines like to say but it should be a dollar bear market that is taking several years to play out here

The logical test for that is the all-time lows and i'll tell you what if we're talking about well we had a you know we had a 30-year bear market and only a 10-year advance boy that's a week advance and then we

Can talk about what might happen when the dollar re-tests its all-time lows and what if it fails at its all-time lows we're looking forward obviously several steps into the future

The first thing is i think we see a bit of a final recovery rally here before we break this trend for good why do i think we are going to break that trend for good i think we have early warning indicators

Here i think what we're seeing in the precious metals right now let's talk about silver especially this move in silver we were talking about this guys just a few weeks ago i was

Saying get ready this thing is about to have a major move boom look at that impulsive breakout that we've seen of the final downtrend here shown in

Blue and silver and the point is i think that this move i think the this is happening now in silver because the precious metals are anticipating

That the dollar is going to break down it's going to break that channel here over the next uh one to six months and so we're getting a preemptive move in the metals as people position themselves

To get ready for that next dollar bear market that is setting up so what is shaping up for silver here i'm going to give you my best read so a lot of people were not prepared here in the last several weeks we had

Several flash updates going out to premium subscribers about silver purchases that we were making here right as we were observing this break out um so if you missed this move

What i want to tell you is that i think we are setting up for one more gentle decline here we will talk about some of the support levels i think there is support here at the 21 dollar level but to be honest

I don't know that it's going to get that low i could see silver dropping perhaps only back into the 22s i think this is going to be a gentle

Sloping bull flag type of grind looking formation it should last anywhere from one to four months and then i think this market sets up for the next impulsive wave higher and you can just see it on the charts

Here you know it's no random coincidence that we bumped against 26 and change and then got rejected right that's a very strong resistance going back here to 2011

When this breaks which should be on the next impulsive move higher into 2021 i'm telling you look at this chart there is another air pocket on this chart there is no resistance no strong resistance once we get above

26 until the 34 35 region and so what i'm saying is for silver and for silver mining investors or silver traders no matter what category you fall into

My message is going to be changing once we break this 26 dollar level i'm going to have people i know they're going to come on as clients and they're going to be saying to me you

Know when we're already up here in the 30s what do i do now and unfortunately it's going to be a different message which is that you've really already missed a significant portion of the move

And you have to be more careful i think in this process that's coming up here over the next several months this is the final opportunity at what we're going to call

Value silver purchases once we get up into here this is going to be secondary purchases that will carry more risk with them so keep that in mind that's where we are with silver

Let's talk about another one of those things that appears to be anticipating that the dollar is going to be breaking down over the months ahead it is the gold

Miners and we usually focus on the senior gold miners but i i think when we look at the mid-tier and the junior gold miners and for full disclosure i own this fund the gdxj fund this is a mid-tier and

Junior gold mining fund and look at this we are seeing we're seeing the entirety of the mining complex the gold mining complex breaking out of a massive stage one base here this is a very

Powerful formation that is now breaking out for that matter we have an official higher target for the gdx j itself of 85 and right here for the week we are only at 58

58 and change so what i think is setting up for the mid tier and the junior miners is a bit of a back off here over the course of the next one to four months

This will be your final opportunity to add in to the junior miners and then i think we get another impulsive move higher at least to this 85 target and if gold continues to accelerate at

That point i see no reason why the gdxj is not going to approach its former all-time high and this is going to be something like a 200 percent gain still coming ahead for we're talking about the average of

About 50 different gold miners here and of course we have some individual gold miners that are going to vastly outperform these averages that said i think it's a good idea

To have a mix of the the sector funds so you have some guaranteed leverage and then i think it's a good idea to buy certain individual miners for real home run type of potential of course i also think it's a good idea

To own the physical matter metal it's not either or it's different forms serve different purposes i see the physical metal just to let you know from a strategy standpoint if you're a stacker

I see the physical metal as my savings account so when i have profits in a trade or i have profits in another aspect of my business i think it's very powerful

To crystallize portions of my wealth in my savings account which i call my physical gold and silver holdings for that true home run potential i think you have to start to look at some of the

Undervalued gold miners we have one gold miner that is up 400 percent in the last six weeks alone and this thing i think is just getting going so i do want to tell you there is still

Plenty of opportunity you look at what is happening here with the dollar trying to break down um i think there's one more bounce coming and one more minor correction if that in the precious

Metals before we get the next impulsive move higher this is the time to be doing your planning this is the time to be doing your research if you would like our guidance with that

I would be happy to have you join our team here we have a service called precious metals intelligence where we publish weekly videos such as what you're seeing now but much

More in depth every week we cover gold silver the us dollar the us stock market the rest of the commodity complex as well as the exact gold and silver miners that we are buying and selling here

With flash updates right to your inbox at the moment that we make those decisions so very powerful time to be thinking about investing in this market but as i said you know some months from now when

We start to approach those targets and those higher breakouts and silver and the gold miners uh it will have been for especially for uh value purchases it will be too late we will have to be looking at higher

Risk purchases at that point so make sure to use this window wisely if you would like to work with me one-on-one please know that i do individual consultations with investors who are just beginning as

Well as advanced uh investors who are diversifying multi-million dollar portfolios in the sector i don't take any funds or any fees from any of the the sector funds that we're

Talking about any of the companies any of the the dealerships that we're talking about here i work entirely with individuals from an independent standpoint and so i'm allowed to share my opinion

And my research in a way where i don't have to try to push you in one direction or another but we can sit down and we can plan things from a logical chart-based data-driven metric that's what we do

I do want to thank those people who are supporting this channel on patreon your support means very very much to me make sure to hit the subscribe button watch the dollar index at the 94 level

A couple of weekly closes let's call it two weekly closes solidly below 94 and in our model the dollar enters a bear market

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