Dr. Gottlieb: U.S. Is Likely To See Hospitalizations Rise | Morning Joe | MSNBC

published on July 9, 2020

>>> WELCOME BACK TO "MORNINGJOE"COMING UP ON 7:45 EAST COASTTIME AS YOU LOOK AT A LIVEPICTURE AT THE WHITE HOUSE INWASHINGTONJOINING US NOW FORMER FDA

COMMISSIONER DR SCOTT GOTTLIEBYOU RAISED A LOT OF EYEBROWSWITH A COMMENT YOU MADE THISWEEK BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE BEENTAKING TO YOUR ADVICE EVERY DAYWITH WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH

CORONAVIRUS WHERE YOU SAID WE’REBACK WHERE WE STARTED WITHCORONAVIRUS IN NEW YORK IN MARCHAND APRIL AND THE DIFFERENCE ISTHERE WAS ONE EPICENTER, NEWYORK CITY AND NOW THERE’S FOUR

OR FIVE EPICENTERSWHAT’S YOUR CLEAR EYED VIEW OFWHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW?>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TOTALNUMBER OF INFECTIONS WE’REHAVING 700,000 INFECTIONS A DAY

RIGHT NOWPROBABLY MORE THAN THATPROBABLY THE NUMBER WE WEREHAVING AT THE PEAK OF THEEPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITYAT THAT TIME WE DIAGNOSED 34,000

INFECTIONS BUT PROBABLY ONE IN20 INFECTIONS BECAUSE WE WEREN’TDOING A GOOD JOB TESTINGPEOPLE WEREN’T GETTING TESTEDSO THAT MEANT WE PROBABLY HADAROUND 700,000 INFECTIONS EVEN

THOUGH WE WERE ONLY DIAGNOSING34,000 A DAYWE’RE DOING A BETTER JOB TESTINGPROBABLY ONE IN 12 INFECTIONSRIGHT NOWCDC SAYS 1 IN 10

SO THAT’S 60,000 INFECTIONS ADAY WE’RE DIAGNOSING THAT’SPROBABLY MORE LIKELY 700,000INFECTIONSSO IN TERMS OF THE BURDEN WE’REIN THE SAME POSITION AS WE WERE

IN MARCH AND APRILTHE ONLY PROBLEM IS IT’S INYOUNGER PEOPLE, HEALTHIER PEOPLEAS WE’RE DOING BETTER PROTECTINGVULNERABLE POPULATIONSSO THE OVERALL MORBIDITY IS

LOWER RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF THEINFECTION BURDEN BUT THE BURDENIS ABOUT THE SAMEIN TERMS OF HOSPITALIZATIONSWITH 43,000 HOSPITALIZATIONSYESTERDAY, THAT PUTS US BACK

WHERE WE WERE IN MID MAY ANDTHAT’S LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GOUP TRAGICALLYWE’RE LIKELY TO SEEHOSPITALIZATIONS RISEREMEMBER AT THE PEAK IN APRIL WE

HIT ABOUT 60,000HOSPITALIZATIONSSO WE MIGHT START TO APPROACHTHAT NUMBER AS WELL>> SO, DR GOTTLIEB, WE’VE HADDOCTORS ON JUST THIS MORNING,

ONE FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, ANEMERGENCY ROOM PHYSICIAN ABOUTTO GO INTO HIS SHIFT SAYING I’MGOING TO WALK INTO A FULLEMERGENCY ROOM, MANY COVIDPATIENTS, SOME NONCOVID

PATIENTS, WE’RE HEARING SIMILARSTORIES OUT OF PLACES LIKE SANANTONIOANTONIO, HOUSTON, FULL BEDSTHERE AND A SHORTAGE OF PPE,WHICH IS SOMETHING I’M SURE THE

COUNTRY THOUGHT WE SOLVED AFTERTHE INITIAL RUSH IN NEW YORK,BOSTON, AND NEW JERSEYWHY ARE WE HERE ON THEFUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS OF GETTINGPEOPLE TESTED, GETTING PEOPLE

PPE, WHY ARE WE BACK ASKINGTHESE QUESTIONS AND HAVING THESECRISES AGAIN?>> I THINK THE MOST SURPRISINGPART OF THIS IS THE TESTING THATWE’RE HAVING THE TESTING DELAYS

IN STATES WITH EPIDEMICSIT DEMONSTRATES WE DON’T HAVE ALOT OF CAPACITY IN THE COUNTRYWHILE WE’RE TESTING A RECORDNUMBER OF PEOPLE A DAY AND WHILETHE AMOUNT CONTINUES TO GO UP,

THE ABILITY TO GET TESTINGRESOURCES INTO PLACES THERE’SEPIDEMICS ISN’T THAT STRONGRIGHT NOWTHE ONLY REAL SWING CAPACITY INTHE COUNTRY ARE THE LARGE

CLINICAL LABS, AND THEY’REPRETTY MAXED OUT AND THEY HAVE ALIMITED ABILITY TO MOVEADDITIONAL TESTING CAPACITY INTOSOME OF THESE MARKETS BECAUSETHEY’RE COMMITTED AROUND THE

COUNTRYWHILE YOU HAVE A LOT OF TESTINGIN MASSACHUSETTS AND NEW YORKYOU DON’T HAVE ENOUGH IN FLORIDAAND TEXASTHAT’S WHERE THE GOVERNMENT CAN

PLAY A ROLEIN TERMS OF THE HEALTH CARERESOURCES, THESE STATES AREN’TYET ON THEIR EXPANSION PLANSTHEY HAVEN’T GONE TO THEIR SURGECAPACITY

I SUSPECT SOME OF THEM ARE GOINGTO TIP TO THAT IN THE COMINGWEEKSSTATES LIKE TEXAS AND FLORIDAHAVE VAST HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS,CALIFORNIA AS WELL

STATES I’M WORRIED ABOUT AREARIZONA, SOUTH CAROLINA,ALABAMA, LOUISIANA WHERE YOU’RESEEING LARGE OUTBREAKS BUT THEYDON’T HAVE THE SAME VASTRESOURCES, AND IT’S HARD TO MOVE

PATIENTS BETWEEN STATES SOSTATES CAN GET IN TROUBLE INTERMS OF RUNNING OUT OF HEALTHCARE CAPACITYFLORIDA STILL HAS CAPACITY, THEYHAVEN’T GOTTEN TO THEIR SURGE

CAPACITY YET, SAME WITHCALIFORNIA AND TEXASBUT IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WE’LLSEE STATES GROW AND THEY’LL MAXOUT THAT CAPACITY AND GO INTO ASURGE TYPE OF SETTING PROBABLY

>> KATTY KAY HAS A QUESTION FORYOU>> CAN I ASK YOU ABOUT THESCHOOLS ISSUESPEAKING EARLIER IN THE PROGRAMABOUT WHAT SCHOOLS CAN LEARN

FROM OTHER COUNTRIES AND WHATTHEY’VE DONE IN OTHER COUNTRIESBUT ONE OF THE BIGGESTDIFFERENCES IS INFECTION RATESARE HIGHER, IN GERMY YOU HAD 298CASES YESTERDAY, DENMARK, 110

WHEN YOU COMPARE THAT IN THESTATES AND THE SURGES HAPPENINGAT THE MOMENT, IS IT THINKABLEWHEN WE ’GOT INFECTION RATES OF11,000 PLUS CASES A DAY IN ASTATE LIKE FLORIDA TO BE OPENING

SCHOOLS?>> I THINK SCHOOLS SHOULDREOPENI THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OFGOVERNORS ARE WORKING TO REOPENTHEIR DISTRICTS

IN STATES WHERE YOU HAVE DENSEEPIDEMICS AND CITIES YOU HAVEDENSE EPIDEMICS IT’S GOING TO BEDIFFICULTSO WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOUSTON,MIAMI IT’S GOING TO BE HARD TO

REOPEN SCHOOLS IN TERMS OF THEBACKDROP OF SURGE CAPACITY, BEDSIN CONVENTION CENTERSAS THIS BUILDS IF YOU LOOK ATTHE PRIVATE MODELING IT SHOWSWE’RE GOING TO PEAK OUT IN THE

STATES IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREEWEEKS, IT’S UNCLEAR IF THAT’STRUE OR NOTTHERE HASN’T BEEN A LOT OFMITIGATION THAT’S REALLY ASIGNAL WE’RE GOING TO TURN A

CORNER ON THIS, ALTHOUGH PEOPLEARE VIGILANTSO IF YOU DO PEAK OUT IN THENUMBER OF CASES IN TWO OR THREEWEEKS, YOU’RE STILL GOING TOHAVE AN EXTENDED PLATEAU LIKE WE

HAD IN NEW YORKHOSPITALIZATION LESS INCREASEAND SO WILL DEATHS, TRAGICALLYSO THESE HOSPITALS WILL BE MAXEDOUT AT THE TIME THEY LOOK ATSTARTING SCHOOL

THE OTHER THING TO REMEMBER ISWITH OTHER COUNTRIES, THEY PUTIN PLACE STRINGENT MEASURES INTHE SCHOOLS TO TRY TO CONTROLOUTBREAKSTHEY DID IT SUCCESSFULLY

SOME SCHOOLS DIDN’TISRAEL HAD A LT OF CAPACITYISSUES IN THEIR SCHOOLSBUT THE COUNTRIES THAT DID ITSUCCESSFULLY, DID IT BY PUTTINGIN PLACE MEASURES TO TRY TO

CONTROL FOR OUTBREAKSTHAT’S WHAT WE NEED TO DO HEREYOU WANT TO AVOID OUTBREAKS INTHE SETTINGS THAT IS GOING TOCLOSE SCHOOLS AND SET US BACKSO YOU WANT TO PUT IN PLACE

PRECAUTIONS AT THE OUTSET TOPREVENT LARGE OUTBREAKS IN THESCHOOL ROOM SETTINGWHEN I TALK TO GOVERNORS, THAT’SWHAT THEY’RE LOOKING TO DOTHEY ALL WANT TO REOPEN THEIR

SCHOOLS, BUT THEY’RE GOING TO DOIT WITH SOME PRUDENCE, SOMECAUTIONS, AT LEAST INITIALLYTAKE IT SLOW AND SEE HOW IT GOESBEFORE THEY START TO BRINGEVERYONE BACK INTO THE

CLASSROOMSOME ARE GOING TO STAGGER THESCHOOL DAY OR HAVE ONE DAY AWEEK THAT KIDS DISTANCE LEARNPUT IN PLACE DISTANCING IN THESCHOOL

BUT ALL OF THEM ARE GOING TOTAKE SOME KIND OF PRECAUTION>> YEAHWE NEED TO GET THIS PRIETAS YOU SAID, NEW YORK CITY HASANNOUNCED IT’S STAGGERED SCHOOL

SCHEDULEWE’LL SEE IF THAT HOLDS UP UNTILEARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN SCHOOLSOPEN BACK UP AGAINDR SCOTT GOTLEIB, THANK YOUVERY MUCH

>>> COMING UP, WILL THERE BE

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