Bitcoin Volatility is back! | Time to long your longs? | Altcoin cycle strategy!

published on August 2, 2020

Good morning everyone happy happy tuesday it's 6 am july 28th my name is emil i'm gonna do your morning bitcoin and crypto analysis man so much amazing movement that we've had so far

Our community on the advantage side guys has killed it the last couple days i know those of you who are in the comments you still think i'm short i'm not i've been in long since july 23rd as you can see right here um

I opened up my position right here in this descending channel that was going around and i think uh let me see if i can point that out on my chart i think it was way the heck down here oh no that's the 9800 channel

Um i think it was somewhere maybe down here i'm trying to think exactly where it was oh there it is yeah this is the channel that i got in okay so what happened was um this

Was a sideways trading range that i was watching effectively right around this breakout right here is when i closed out of my short and then i went long in this channel right here because

I saw that this key area 9445 which comes from see right here is the june monthly open that's the 9445 marker i saw we smashed above that area we

Tested it as support this is where i effectively went long and so i went long all the way to 9 7 these were my targets all of them pretty much hit right because

9675 hit 9700 hit 98 25 and uh 10k so i posted some proofs right there as you can see took some profit right there and then close the remainder of my position at 9875 and 10 000

Okay then what happened well i said okay well it looks like bitcoin ain't stopping right it came back here the most important level that i also stated

If you watch my video analysis from us a couple days ago was if you look at this key marker right here 9875 i stated that this is a big resistance level okay

This is another reason why i had stated um or was it 90 oh not 9825 i think i'm at 9875 this is why i took profit at 9875 okay that's because this key area right here guys

That you see in 9875 it stretches back way the hell back here to may 2020 all resistance across the board as you can see resistance across the board this is a deviation but resistance across the board nonetheless

And so i took profit right there at 9875 and then again i said okay well i took profit 9875 i took profit 10k price again retested my key level of 9875 as support i'll just enter

Another long then see this is how you want to play the market although you can make the argument that well what if you just kind of moved up your stops etc etc i think you can do that

See the thing with me is i like to realize the gains in my account okay when i realize the gains i feel a little bit better i don't mind opening up multiple positions

I mean technically if you think about it i close some of my position at 9875 some of my position at 10 000 and then i pretty much reopened another position when i saw this mini breakout happening okay which was

On a 5-10 minute time frame and this was basically the start of a new daily candle that was happening two days ago and i just entered another long at 9970 or so

So as you can see right there and then i took some of my position off at 10 400 some of my position off at ten thousand seven hundred as you can see right there and then my final cut was eleven

Thousand four hundred so i'm going to describe to you exactly why i picked those markers okay here's why i picked ten thousand four hundred okay so let's go back on the um

Uh daily chart okay if you look at the high right here right it was ten thousand four seventy three okay so i stated okay well i mean ten thousand four hundred is an even marker right

Then didn't have to be exact like oh i'm gonna pick ten thousand four seventy three but i picked ten thousand four hundred because of that so now you know why i picked ten thousand four hundred

Because it was somewhere around the high of this key area right here just in case you know i picked that marker just in case we did something like this and then start to roll back over

These are again in hindsight okay you know you can't obviously you know state that that couldn't have happened because we already smashed up through that level i get it but when you're looking back

Right now when this had not happened well it was very possible 10 400 could have been the high because that could have kept us in this lower high structure right here okay where we are right now and then

Where did i get my 10 700 marker i'll show you okay that's that one let's go to the monthly chart okay um let's see here 10 700 this is where i got 10 700 from

You see this candle closing on the monthly right there whoops let me do the magnet mode on this thing so yep there you go see ten thousand seven sixty one

That is a key monthly level that bitcoin has not been able to break above okay so because bitcoin has not been able to break above that monthly level and said okay well these candles open

And close right here i'm just going to use that as my next target all right then i stated that okay well if we break past that then what is my next level well my final level that i've been

Watching is comes from a weekly standpoint this is 11 400 again ignore the 75 change at the end i just look for even numbers around specific markers okay um so in

This particular case right here right 11 400 you can see the weekly candles unable to close above this area right all four one two three four five six seven technically candles unable to

Close above this weekly marker so as my other target but the point is that the reason i'm stating this is because guys before i entered a trade i know exactly where my

Stop is i know exactly what the game plan is okay i do not you know dilly dally around the trade and i think wait a second it's going up maybe i'll just hold on to the trade this and that

No you have a game plan set um once the target hits your markers okay be happy with it take your profit now if it far exceeds your markers okay then start laying out the next big levels that you could be looking forward

To what could potentially happen next what are other markers above us and and for that you know i did have another target in mind which was this key high

Right here 13 just in case say we smash above this area on a daily basis eleven thousand four hundred i'll i'll hop back into another long then i'll ride this thing

Uh from eleven thousand four hundred to thirteen thousand nine hundred so that's how i've been playing this from level to level and just to show you guys here's my proof um

Closing out my position in um uh where was it my short my swing short that i had literally for 55 days or so uh i collected a ton of money to be honest um i also was up almost 17

Of my entire account so for those of you who think i got wrecked i didn't sorry to disappoint you um not only did i not get wrecked i actually was pretty much able to close out my entire position

In profit and then quickly enter in to a long like i just showed you and basically what happened was on a structural basis this is kind of what happened this is really what triggered uh me wanting to sell out of my short

And get into a lot so right around this area right here i was drawing this descending triangle right this is this orange area i said okay i felt pretty confident that this thing right here

Was going to break down all right then i saw this july monthly open holding okay then i saw the previous weekly open right here getting broken through with this candle okay i saw this consolidation and then

Another push right here that was coming through that said all right well you know it might be time to get out of my short position so right around this candle

Right here is where i got out and then i flipped long right here like i explained okay so so far i've pretty much caught almost like 80 90 percent of the run to be honest um so it's been pretty great

Um beyond that you know i think where i am right now with bitcoin is we hit my you know key 11 400 level um do i think we're gonna go higher i really don't know because we've pretty

Much gone parabolic i guess i guess we could look at it this way okay so this is the key area that i wanted retested right um again this comes back from this key

High i mean this this high right here and then this high so as long as we stay above this area and by the way i think this candle right here was the retest

It may have been fast and quick but that's how bitcoin is it takes no prisoners when it's taking off it's going off boys and girls you know so i think this was the retest

Right here of this key support level unless i see tomorrow which is uh the next daily candle which is 12 hours from now start breaking down and breaching this area again

I'm not at all really concerned that this could potentially break down in fact i feel a little bit more confident that you know this could have been the retest maybe you could consider entering long

Here or move your stop just above this slope i don't know however you want to play that but that's one way to go about it and then you can take again a target back towards where these

Candles open and close right here around 11 000 okay 11 000 flat because i could totally see a doji or a hanging man happening on this red candle right here where this candle

Closes basically where it opened okay so right around 11 00 30 or so if it pushes higher like i said um i think it might go back to

11 400 that's the big weekly level you know that we literally tap like right here okay um i mean i think the oscillators and stuff are doing all right um let me see here

Let's check out the the weekly so the weekly rsi still has room to go by the way okay it has not hit overbought territory so this is why i say i think it's possible that we could push up higher

Maybe into the rest of the week maybe into um next week but uh you know the the daily rsi right here is definitely a bit over stretched right you can see it's overbought um

Not only that but we have this you know td9 that we pretty much hit dead on okay right there as you can see so i don't know i i think you want to be careful right now now is not the time to be

Greedy and hungry because here's the thing we just had a big volatile movement to the upside okay what market makers are going to do is they're going to sell volatility right or they're going to take off

Volatility off the market so the deep out of the money puts in calls they may not want to be so aggressive on because i mean if you've made such a large move what you're effectively thinking is okay

Well yes it's possible that we could push up higher but at present moment what you really might consider is volatility might be a bit more calmer after such a big move so what they want to do is

The average retailer will probably buy thinking that 12 000 13 000 is going to go higher and higher right or we're going to dump straight down to 9 000

But usually guys after volatile moves like this the market is maybe calmer for a day two days three days sometimes um because that you know big volatility has shaken out a lot of people

Okay so market makers have to re-establish their positions do they want to you know start um putting out more ass for their positions do they want to uh you know give out more shorts i mean

I don't really know the decision making process behind it but that's kind of how it works in this particular instance what i want to be is i want to be short volatility meaning i don't think that

There's going to be another explosive movement right away maybe in a couple days i don't know if it's going to happen just today itself okay

Um so there you have it i mean we have you know bitcoin analysis um showing us that there's you know big upside that we've had we even hit the r2 right there right r2 right around 9269 or so and so we haven't breached

That yet it's possible that we push up higher um i don't know if we can get to the r3 like i said right away maybe wait for another day or two and then we might make that big move to the

Upside uh to 12 000 which could be the r3 marker but my big marker say we actually start closing a daily candle above 11 400

That mark where i spoke about well i think we're probably going to go to 13 900 which was the key high that i mentioned on the weekly basis right this key high from 2019

June 2018 okay but you can see right there right 11 400 we've got to get through that until then well i don't know i mean i'm going to take it one step at a time

Alrighty um okay so let's actually pivot a little bit into altcoins okay now i wrote out this post for my advantage members and i'll share it with you guys because i like you um so here's my post

For advantage members okay so basically what i stated was you know the the big move that we've had so far in bitcoin okay it came off the back of stage one which was alts were taking off as

Btc was moving in this sideways range right here okay so alts were having a party through this entire range that you see then what happened okay then btc takes off

And then alts bled right let's take a look at some altcoins okay so let's check out link okay so you can see i mean you know links started bleeding the last two days i mean it went down all the way to

650 almost uh tezos okay because those bled down quite a bit uh let me see i mean i don't really care about xrp but let's check out xrp anyway xrp actually broke out so

Here's how i saw it okay um as bitcoin was breaking out there was a few coins that were following it there it was ethereum and litecoin and be cash and xrp some of the more legacy coins that we've

Had in the last cycle too the coins that were taking off in this range right here when bitcoin was sideways are slowly bleeding down we're not xrp we're not litecoin we're not ethereum

Okay it was the lynx the tezos the d5 space all those so i think there's a bifurcation that's kind of happening in the d5 space versus altcoin space there might be a segmentation of hey i'm d5

You're a regular altcoin the regular altcoins are things like ethereum or things like xrp or litecoin bitcoin cash you know all the old guard coins right so i think the cycle goes like this

Okay as bitcoin pushes up i think these legacy old uh old guard altcoins push up as bitcoin moves sideways or even potentially slowly bleeds down like this

For several weeks like it did i think the defy space the new coins of the world like link and tesla's etc those are the ones that are going to be taking off so i think

This uh bifurcation process i mean i'm still trying to work itself out you know but but i think that's kind of what's going on but the point is as you start seeing link and these old coins or i'm sorry

These newer coins that in the d5 cost area when you see bitcoin calm down or bleed a little bit that's when you're going to see that second round of alts take off and alts meaning like i just said you know define all those

Points okay when you see bitcoin moving up i think you want to be in these coins right here like xrp like ethereum because ether i'm pretty sure took off a good amount

You know yeah as you can see i mean east hit a high of 333 or so so east took off exactly with bitcoin all right so i'm kind of looking at this and saying okay well

Uh i mean bitcoin's taking off ethereum's taking off xrp's taking off litecoin's taking off but link did not take off so the strategy for me was

Well the coins that are dumping i want to buy more of those because at some point bitcoin is going to calm down volatility is going to calm down and i want to be long those coins so the

Strategy for me was well i'm just going to recirculate some of my gains from bitcoin because i made two awesome you know long trades so far i made an awesome short i got a good amount of cash on him i'm

Just going to buy some more um alt coins okay so anyway if you guys are curious about the alt coins that i'm picking up uh what coins i'm still interested in join the advantage membership

Um we have a whole altcoin discussion area d5 discussion area tons of uh analysis and tons of trade setups that we're taking again we can't give you investment

Advice i can't tell you what to buy or sell but you know i can show you exactly what i'm doing okay so i think that's pretty much it guys you know

Um i think we covered bitcoin altcoins uh the last thing actually what we could cover real quick is the dxy remember this is the dollar basket okay basically what i've stated over and

Over again is uh the dxy has bled a lot over the last several weeks what's taken off with it is things like gold like silver uh like the us equity markets

And bitcoin right bitcoin was pretty much the last to take off but all those other markets were taking off now here's what happens if the dollar starts gaining strength and starts pushing up

I think all these markets are going to start breaking down or at least pulling back rather not breaking down i think equities will break down i think gold will break down or pull back a

Little bit i think bitcoin even could pull back a little bit but i mean for us it's very important to just simply watch this level right remember like i said let me turn this

Off right here um remember like i said you know all you gotta do is just watch this key ten thousand five hundred ten thousand six hundred marker um and you know you should be fine i

Think as long as we stay above that we could definitely aim back towards 11 400 and maybe even higher but if you you know start bleeding back inside this area i don't know this could be a very very big fake out i mean i

Hate to say it but i think the possibility is there guys you know the possibility that this could be a fake out above range high i mean look we've seen deviations like this right

You guys know what i'm talking about you know when you have a defined range that you're seeing right here you have a bit of a breakout above and then the next day boom price collapses back inside

Okay we've seen this over and over again you know this is how ranges work either they hold or they don't hold okay if the range high is broken it needs to hold okay if it doesn't all shit's about to hit the fan and

We're going to collapse back inside all right okay well i'm going to wrap it up here thank you so much for watching hit the thumbs up if you enjoy our content i try to do a lot of free analysis for

Our members um you know there's a d5 video that i made uh i will put it up so you can click on it on the top right of your screen it should be a suggested video make sure

You watch that because i do list out my strategy for d5 coins uh one of the coins or a couple of the coins that i'm paying attention to so y'all get an idea of exactly what i'm interested in

Okay until then take care cheers come join our advantage community i'll talk to y'all soon

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