by birtanpublished on August 21, 2020

did Bitcoin truly begin a breakout out of this falling wedge that'll take us all the way up to this price target here or is it a major major fake-out will show you two reasons that you have to pay attention to about why this most

Likely could have happened and you need to be prepared and as well this push actually pushed Bitcoin above this six year structural line is this an actual move or in fact is this just a fake out before a drop will this nine day moving

Average not end up crossing below this EMA ribbon we'll take a look at that what the chances are what target will bitcoin have to hit on these prices to actually trigger a bigger price search to the upside because we're not there

Just yet and as well the MACD continues to actually increase on this weekly chart is this a sign for bullish things to come we will take a look and guys huge we actually now have filled this eme gap which is necessary in my opinion

Pretty quickly this gets filled what does this mean for bitcoins price going into the end of the week and especially going over the next few weeks we'll also take a look at joseph young's opinion on three technical reasons why there still

Could be some room to run the upside but he does have a specific target that I could hit before it actually gets a pullback breakout or fake out let's get into the news Wow what's going on everyone welcome back to an especially

Episode of Bitcoin there was a breakout earlier today okay we got to this certain level but specifically we are finding some resistance at one of the two major levels of resistance that we've been finding for weeks and weeks

And weeks so we have to talk about if that's a good thing a bad thing is this actually just a fake out and there's something so important that's many of you do know but if you're new to the space this has only been happening for a

Few years ever since the end of 2017 I believe November of 2017 this happens very often it has to do with futures trading it has to do with being able to short and long Bitcoin as well so we really have to talk

About this because it's a pattern that happens over and over and over again when it comes to breakouts and could we be seeing the same situation happen now and if we are what does that mean for bitcoins price because usually we will

See the reaction very quickly so I think we will know for sure within like 24 hours if this is actually what's happening or if it is in fact a real breakout so we'll get into my opinions about that in this video and

Specifically where I think the next moves will be this last move was not very big but the reason that it's interesting is because it seemingly broke out of this pattern so that's mainly we have to talk about in this

Video and as well since we started filming we actually broke a little bit above this key level so this is a perfect time to do technical analysis because it's happening live as I'm recording the video so guys if you do

The channel drop that like comment subscribe turn on the dings to enter for this ledger and without any further ado let's hop into the TA Wow so guys let's take a look on this chart first now this is actually interesting right now we're

Pumping as I'm as I'm filming this okay this will be at least an hour two hours until I get the video out but this is what we're seeing right now we're actually crossing above the nine day moving average which could reverse this

Signal remember we said yesterday we could confirm it's gonna have a breakdown if this nine day moving average starts slicing through this EMA ribbon those one of the indicators that we talked about heavily in yesterday's

Video we said it's not confirmed yet but if we see this nine day start slicing below this that that's a very good indication that we'll get a nice pull back now currently we're actually slightly above this as I'm filming this

And to be above it right now the price has to be around ninety two hundred US dollars which is currently currently where bitcoins price is so very interesting seemingly as well over the past three days we got it bounced on

This line now you see it here come down here and we're getting that bounce now I think it's very important that if this is a true breakout it has to meet us a few certain criteria so that's what we're gonna be talking about primarily

For one thing something I've been saying for a long time is we don't want to spend too much time playing around with this blue line here this is a very long-term trend line when we're looking at these smaller timeframes on this

Chart this just coincides with these very very long-term patterns here so we continuously we've been playing with this line for you know ever since April 29th broke above it came back down then on May 10th went below it then it took a

Few days got above it came back down on mate 20th we've been playing around for like the past week there so I personally don't think we want to spend too much more time playing around with this line

It's a it's a big factor in determining the overall strength of the market I think okay this is not not something to shake your head at okay this is a this is a line that's pretty important so I just zoom back to show you how I mean

Look at that guys it just keeps going back it goes back for like ever so let's zoom back into like the few months we can see on the chart when we get in zoomed in like this right now we are doing this now one thing I do really

Want to note is the $9,300 is a crucial area now to sum it up okay i'm gonna state this pretty important at first i think that we could end up seeing this pump go all the way to 90 300 but i don't think that will go much higher

Than that unless these two other things happen so that's primarily also what we're gonna be talking about here so let's take a look at this chart now so actually we're getting pushed down a little bit you know since we start i

Started a video right about here then i did the intro and it's right about here and now the intro is over and i've been talking for a minute or two and now it's back down here so one of the reasons this is huge is because this orange line

We talked about heavily in yesterday's video as well as this line which is right where we got that bounce the pumps started right at this line and went all the way up to this line now it's been holding there for a little bit i can

Switch to a smaller time frame you so you can see how many hours it's kind of been getting rejected there so let's see 1 2 3 4 5 and now the sixth hour here is actually trying to get back above it again this is a crucial level this is

The $9,200 level and this is the $8,800 level which our support and resistance going back pretty far pretty substantial levels specifically over the past year so that's where we're watching those but even more importantly ever since the end

Of april this has been a very tight area that bitcoins been fluctuating in finding support finding little bounces and then falling below it finding resistance finding it bounces above it so overall one of the first things other

The two things one of the first things that need to happen if this is an actual breakout because the breakout target is actually all the way up here for this if this is a falling wedge the breakout target is all the way up here okay and

Actually before we do that let's show you what that would look like on a longer-term chart where that breakout would be on this longer-term chart okay we take this falling wedge and we transpose that breakout target over to

This longer-term chart you can see the breakout target actually that's a little high it's right about right about here the breakout target would be here which is important because if we take a look and zoom out this is a much longer term

Chart guys this would be breaking above the which would be if we got that breakout target which would be the most substantial break out of this two-and-a-half year

Descending line of resistance since June 28th of 2019 so basically about a year this would be the biggest move above this this long-term resistance in the past year so if we do actually if this actually is a true breakout then this is

Actually really exciting if it is a breakout but that's why I'm a little hesitant right now because on one end you know if this is a true breakout we get it this is really bullish for the space I think especially even short-term

Over the next thirty days but if we get a rejection here which i think is more likely then again then we'll have to get those pullback levels we talked about a lot in yesterday's video and we're gonna be talking about today as well but again

Basically I'll draw like a rough what this falling wedge that's really bad a rough view of it on this chart but it would be like up to here this would be the breakout target okay so we'll go back to this chart one of the main

Things we have to do is obviously break in 92 and 93 is a huge reason that you don't see on this chart okay it's not on this chart why 93 is huge it's actually according to some shorts and long data that we're gonna be getting into in a

Little bit here because we gotta take that into account as well and guys the last thing I want to say about this chart specifically is yesterday I said falling wedges have a 60% chance to break to the upside but I said that I

Thought it was higher percent chance it was going to break down now that sounds a little bad because my wording was really bad but I want to actually rephrase it like this falling wedges without any other context breakup

Two-thirds of the time as a pattern as a whole but what I was saying is in this context with everything else going on in all of these other charts including what we just face resistance up here I thought that it was less likely that

Bitcoin was gonna have a break up to this target here actually in the last thing I want to say about these patterns is specifically with wedges and pennants one of the things that I've noticed a lot over the last year is that when we

Have breakouts very often we get a false breakout and we swing very strongly to the other side this happens pretty often here and I think one of the biggest reasons for that is something I want to get into in this article in regards to

The shorts and the long so basically I'll sum it up a little here and then I'll go into more detail when everybody is expecting the market to go down okay so when people are shorting the market one of the ways that there is a little

Corruption a little bit of manipulation in this market is whether it's exchanges or whales or both very often what happens they will swing the price one certain direction that a lot of people aren't

Expecting so those people that are expecting it to go a certain way get liquidated okay and then usually the price does end up going the way that the technicals will think it'll go but the reason it has a wild swing in the one

Direction is because people people make a lot of money manipulating the market in shorting the market or at least liquidating people that way exchanges make a lot of money and whales can make a lot of money so this pattern even

Though this is a bullish setup without any other context overall after testing 10k like weeks and weeks up here I think obviously the momentum is shifting down a little bit especially on some of these other time frames that's showing that

But specifically one of the reasons we see that is because this shakes out some people that liquidate some people who are expecting the price to go down okay so they lose their positions they make money this way and then the price ends

Up kind of doing what it almost looks like it should do so that's another thing to pay attention to just because it looks like it's going down doesn't mean that there's not going to be a break spiked up and then it'll go down

Because a lot of the times that's exactly what happens the market is never as simple as okay look a falling wedge this usually breaks up it's gonna break up okay it's never that simple if it was that simple then everybody would be a

Pro trader because you can just Google a falling wedge and that's just why I said you have to include context with a lot of different things so as well on this chart you can see we actually haven't gotten quite up to the 21 day moving

Average which is this blue line we're in between the 50 and the 21 day moving average okay the 21 is all the way up here right around ninety three hundred US dollars and that's another thing I another reason I think over today we

Might end up getting actually to 93 even going to 94 in the short term before getting a rejection there so I definitely think we could still have a little more room to the upside before getting pushed down now before we

Continue on other stuff guys we did actually fill the CMA gap the gap was it was pretty small as between like 92 and 90 70 actually let's see 9070 and about 90 130 so less than $100 gap but you can see here in this four hour candle we

Clearly fill that so we did fill this gap here so as you can see all of these other charts when we do end up filling the gap momentum does usually swing the opposite direction and as well guys the one thing I think everyone should be

Paying attention to is well if we do get a swing up we talked about the two reasons that this could are two ways that this could be confirmed as a massive breakout if we actually break above ninety six hundred US dollars so

90 290 300 is the first big confirmed level and then 96 if that gets confirmed then I think this entire pattern couldn't up actually being a true breakout with the breakout being closer to 99 even ten

Thousand US dollars so full break out of this pattern would be about nine thousand nine hundred or about ten thousand but if we break above ninety-six then I think that would be a really good confirmation that that

Pattern might actually play out but currently we haven't broken either of those levels 93 or high 92 hundreds about 93 and then the second one being 96 this 96 has proven to be insanely hard resistance especially over the past

Three weeks we haven't had a candle close above it once the last time we had a candle close above 90 300 was February 17th the week of February 17th 2020 so it's been a long time you can see we spent 1 2 3 4 weeks trying to close

Inside of this and we couldn't so on the weekly scale this is much more important if we can actually get this pattern on the daily to break above and close around 96 or 97 or at least get back into it then that could be mean a much

Larger time frame swing to the upside on these charts here wow so this gets into more detail about all this kind of stuff Bitcoin retakes 9 thousand US dollars 3 technical reasons there's still some room now this is not a very bullish

Article but it does say that there is some market data showing there could be a surge up to 93 and 94 hundred dollars in the very short term according to a crypto currency trader known as crypto I so the liquidation range of 25 X to 50 X

Shorts filled in the high eight thousands in is at around ninety three hundred ninety three hundred resistance level is a sufficient liquidity which gives whales incentive to bring up the price of Bitcoin above it says here he's

Quoted here as saying crypto ISO is quoted here saying 92 98 is 25 X liquidation 93 36 is 50 X around the throwback channel line in fibs own price ran most of the liquidations down today maybe it shoots four top side

Liquidity before further distribution and as well guys this is huge news goldman is having a client call and one of the topics is bitcoin today as of May 27th that's happening today I believe in April when the rally of Bitcoin went

From 7,000 10,000 it was primarily led by spot market the futures market had less of an impact however the open interest on bit Mex okx and financed futures recovered indicates more traders are now active in

Futures as opposed to spot trading as such futures data such as liquidation ranges and funding rates can have a bigger effect on the price trend of Bitcoin than it did previously when we were talking about spot exchanges a lot

A few weeks ago now this is huge Goldman Sachs is having a client call today with Bitcoin gold and inflation obviously as everybody knows the climate right now of the economy and of the US dollar and everything going on with the printing of

That it may increase exposure of high net worth individuals to Bitcoin over the medium to long term he also states here probably won't have any effect at all like over the next week this is a more long-term thing just getting more

Institutional investors potentially interested in buying Bitcoin but here it says the price of Bitcoin going up based on news is more likely to be Wales using the narrative to trigger a minor rally to a liquidity area at around 93 so

Again this perfect lines up with I've been saying it's it's very likely that this could be you know like a little fake out to liquidate some people who are in trades right now very likely so I mean think about it if

You had the ability to do something like that you could make more money if everybody is expecting a certain move and you're able to push the price to a certain move to liquidate a lot of those people and then the price could kind of

Do what it's seemingly it looks like it wants to do which is go down for right now it also indicates here that a large number of traders are shorting Bitcoin and possibly trapped in underwater short positions exactly exactly the scenario

Here that increases probability of a short squeeze to about 93 and 94 so basically like I said 93 could be broken today 94 as well but specifically I'm not gonna get too excited about this move and this is where I think a lot of

People should as well I'm not gonna get too excited about this move until we would potentially break like 96 hundred US dollars so 96 is the big area if we see this go all the way up here again the full breakouts a substantial amount

Higher than that so if we get all the way to about here when the full breakout is here if we get here then I think that's a time to get excited about the move we're still like two or three hundred dollars away from that right now

And again as I'm filming we're still getting that small rejection here but like I said I expect we could see 93 to even 94 today before getting a further rejection but if the scenario happens where we go up to 93 94 and they

Continue to 96 then it's time to get a little excited the low funding rate minor fear of missing out around the gold Goldman Sachs call in the liquidation zone of our 93 may lead to a small upsurge of bitcoins price

So guys do you agree with the analysis do you think this is a full-fledged breakout or do you think this is just a big fake-out which is what I'm definitely tending to lean more towards overall in these higher time frames you

Know Bitcoin does look like it doesn't have a little bit of a correction and there's nothing on these higher time frames yet that indicates that bitcoin is actually going to pump this week if we break the key level of 9600 u.s.

Dollars then that's where I get excited so guys thanks so much for watching make sure to drop your comment to enter for these ledgers and as well guys if you want to learn some awesome ta specifically the tips and tricks that

I'll use in full detail in this course and we're still adding courses every single month we're gonna be adding a lot more courses specifically we added treating the stuff guys if you're interested in that definitely make sure

To take advantage of this and there's a coupon code for 40 $35 off in the description if you're interested guys very cool and again thanks everyone so much for purchasing I've heard a lot of feedback from you guys emailing me I

Actually have some emails right now it looks like so I have to get into that and read some of those but guys oh yeah guys thanks so much for watching peace

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